The UK market is a lame duck. While Brexit promised revolution and swashbuckling freedom, it failed to deliver, so, now cut off from the continent, the UK market shrank to become smaller than Paris. How the mighty fell. This creates an interesting trade-off between overvalued UK stock market stocks and the now larger but relatively undervalued Euronext. The London Stock Exchange has gone from 400p to 8,000p in a decade so I guess it can’t help but be vulnerable to a fall especially as it has ejected its stock guts like a sea squid, to buy a piece of Reuters that couldn’t be stopped when it was once listed itself. Euronext has a P/E of 17 against a P/E of 80 on the London Stock Exchange, which is shrinking.
I wouldn’t touch this trade personally, because when it comes to high valuations, it doesn’t make any obvious sense. You only need to try to find solid financial information for companies to find that for stocks, hot air is abundant when concrete information is often not available or considered.
Sometimes I think a simple non-stock pick tip is worth a lot more than a stock tip and yet usually no one notices. People want names, not techniques, they want a fish, not a lesson in how to fish. I have written numerous articles for Forbes for 20 years and have called all the major stock and crypto tips and funds with few mistakes.
No one cares, because investing for many is just entertainment, and they lose money and ultimately that’s just part of their life story. Every once in a while I get a note saying you saved me from financial disaster and that makes me feel good but the summary is that people are in the market to take a trip not to earn money silver.
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It sounds weird, but why else would there be so many high-risk instruments designed from the start to take your money and send it home?
So here is an unshared tip, tip.
If you want to know what’s happening in the UK stock market, don’t look at the FTSE 100, look at the FTSE SMX (small cap index).
Take a look at the FTSE 100:
Now look at the FTSE Small-cap Index:
Or better yet the small cap index without the trust funds:
Looks no different until you put them side by side:
They are different but compare that with the small cap and the FTSE 100:
The FTSE is full of noise and distortion.
This is what just happened and the small cap gives you an idea of how things went when the FTSE 100 is noisy and so lacking in signal.
The FTSE small cap trends are much more:
It reveals the true trend as the FTSE 100 is plagued with the effects of being a means to an end for many other financial transactions that need hedging.
The FTSE 100 is being stripped of its earnings by financial predators and although there is a lot to be done there, this predation covers the trend because eating the trend is how it is stripped of its value. Small caps are out of the reach of these huge predators, so it tells you more clearly if the market is bullish or bearish, which is ultimately all you need to know.
What you need to know now is that the FTSE is still bearish.
No need to go long when the direction is down.
When the tide turns, you’ll know and there’s sure to be meat on the bones of the dinosaurs.
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