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Stock Outlook: Forecasts Rise Again as S&P 500 Beats Year-End Targets
Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 index for the third time, reflecting Wall Street's upbeat outlook for earnings growth and the U.S. economy.
Bank equity strategists led by David Kostin now forecast the U.S. stock benchmark will end the year at 5,600, up from the 5,200 level they predicted in February. The new target implies an advance of around 3% for the indicator compared to its close on Friday.
Goldmans raised its target ties with those of Jonathan Golub and Brian Belski of BMO Capital Markets to the highest on Wall Street.
The target increase is due to lighter-than-average negative earnings revisions and a higher fair value P/E multiple, Kostin, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote in a note to customers on Friday.
The upgrade comes a month after Kostin reiterated the company's 5,200-member goal, saying there was no room for further growth in the 500-member gauge through December. Business strategists first outlined their 2024 target inNovemberBeforebreedingin December and again inFEBRUARY. The S&P 500 closed at 5,431.60 on Friday.
While the company's strategists maintained their earnings per share forecasts for 2024 and 2025, they noted that strong earnings growth in the top five mega-cap technology stocks offset the typical pattern of negative revisions to consensus EPS estimates . Kostin also raised the price-to-earnings multiple of the S&P 500, which he considers fair from 19.5 to 20.4.
Kostin imagined several other scenarios in which stocks could outperform his new baseline forecast even further. If gains widen and send the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index higher, the main cap-weighted benchmark could rise another 9% to 5,900 before the close of 2024. In its most optimistic case , if mega-cap exceptionalism persists, the gauge could climb to 6,300 by the end of the year.
Conversely, if earnings estimates prove too optimistic or recession fears resurface among investors, the S&P 500 index could see a correction of about 13% and fall to 4,700.
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Sources 2/ https://fortune.com/2024/06/15/stock-market-outlook-wall-street-forecasters-sp500-year-end-targets/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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