Stock market awaits supporting factors for breakthrough

Investors monitor stock market developments at the H Ch Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE). Photo VNA/VNS

H NI The stock market trended sideways last week as continued fluctuations tested investors' patience as expectations of a market breakout to reclaim the high of 1,300 points failed to materialize.

Additionally, trading volume was lower than the 20-day average, indicating a sense of caution among investors.

On the H Ch Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN index closed last week at 1,282.02 points, while the HNX index on the H Ni Stock Exchange (HNX) closed at 244.36 points.

Both benchmark indices recorded a slight weekly rise, with the VN and HNX indices each increasing by 0.16 percent.

Liquidity on HoSE saw a slight decline, with market trading value reaching 23.4 trillion dong per session ($919 million), reflecting a slight decline of 4.4 percent from the previous week.

Foreign investors continued to sell heavily, with net sales of around 1 trillion dong per session from June 17 to 21. Blue chip stocks were the focus of attention, particularly FPT stocks, which accounted for a quarter of net sales. On HoSE, foreign investors sold shares for five consecutive sessions, with a total net sale of 139.8 million shares worth VN4.9 trillion, increasing 1.64 percent in volume but decreasing by 10.1 percent in value compared to the previous week.

Nguyn Khc Thnh, an analyst at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), observed positive signals in the market, noting that the VN index frequently tested the strong support level around 1,270 points and then rebounded to the zone of 1,280 points. However, liquidity decreased on both exchanges compared to the previous week, reflecting investor caution during the week of derivative contract expirations and ETF portfolio restructuring.

After a week under adjustment pressure, the market experienced high volatility around the resistance level of 1,300 points, corresponding to the upper limit of the medium-term trend line. Thnh noted that the market traded in a tight range of 1,270 to 1,285 points for five sessions. SHS data indicates that the level of 1,285 points is the highest since September 2022 and May 2024.

The VN Index closed the week above the 20-day average level by around 1,280 points, with highly differentiated trading activity and reduced liquidity. Thnh expects the VN index to continue to accumulate in the range of 1,250 to 1,300 points, with a balance around 1,280 points. The current move suggests that the VN Index is likely to surpass the 1,285-point level, aiming to move back into the 1,295-point resistance zone. In a less optimistic scenario, the VN index could trade between 1,250 and 1,280 points.

The analysis team of Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) pointed out that gold prices reached their highest level in two weeks due to signs of economic weakening in the United States. Specifically, global gold prices rose sharply on June 20 after data indicated a slowdown in the U.S. economy, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve (FED) may begin cutting interest rates in September. Analysts noted that bullish speculators have regained their dominance in the gold market, targeting prices above $2,400 per ounce. At the same time, the main central banks remain cautious when it comes to interest rates.

Domestically, VCBS analysts observed that the VN index closed the week with a slight decline, reflecting cautious sentiment in the range of 1,270 to 1,290 points. Technically, the indicators remain unclear, suggesting that the market needs more time to find a point of equilibrium. However, significant short-term volatility risks are not a major concern. VNS

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