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Stocks edge higher as key inflation figure looms
The number of pending unemployment claims reached its highest level since November 2021 last week, confirming signs of a slowdown in the labor market as unemployed workers struggle to find new jobs.
New data from the Ministry of Labour The data showed that nearly 1.84 million claims were filed in the week ending June 22, up from 1.82 million the previous week. At the same time, the four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 236,000, the highest rate since September 2023.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said the data “sends a warning signal that the labor market may be weakening.”
The key question for the Federal Reserve is whether this slowdown is another sign of labor market normalization or an indicator that higher interest rates could seriously harm the U.S. economy.
A growing number of economists believe the risks are tilted toward a painful outcome.
Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, cautioned against interpreting too broadly data on jobless claims, which can be volatile from week to week, but noted that a further rise in the trend of weekly unemployment claims would undoubtedly be a cause for concern.
“A persistent rise in initial claims would signal greater labor market weakness and a larger rise in the unemployment rate than we currently expect and would strengthen our case for a September rate cut by the Fed “Vanden Houten wrote in a note on Thursday.
The Fed has remained largely steadfast in its argument that it needs to gain “greater confidence” in the path of inflation before cutting interest rates. At his last press conference on June 12, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the labor market was continuing to normalize and that, from the Fed's perspective, it had not yet shown real signs of concern.
“We observe a gradual cooling and a gradual evolution towards a better balance. We're monitoring the situation carefully for signs of something bigger, but we're really not seeing that,” Powell said.
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