Budget could send Indian stock markets higher, new study predicts

Market watchers say the Indian stock market could gain as much as 20% for the full year on government spending and continued momentum in corporate earnings. A Bloomberg survey found that the upcoming budget is likely to boost consumer spending and infrastructure construction, as more than half of the 24 respondents estimated that the NSE Nifty 50 index could rise as much as 26,000 points by the end of 2024. One of them predicted that the index could climb even higher. The benchmark index is up 12% year-to-date, a record.

Bino Pathiparampil, research director at Mumbai-based Elara Capital, said: “Corporate earnings for the past year have been strong on favourable margins and could grow above trend in FY2025, safeguarding India’s medium-term growth.”

Among the respondents, 13 believed earnings growth for Nifty components would remain robust, while five said optimism about future earnings was overblown. Analysts estimated earnings per share for companies in the MSCI India index for 2024 would rise 15.6% year-on-year, in contrast to the 10% rise forecast by Chinese companies.

Analysts also said capital spending would be the government's top priority in the budget, while some said boosting consumer demand would top their to-do list.

The government can please everyone with higher capital expenditure, social spending and yet a tighter budget, thanks to higher tax revenues and ample dividends from the central bank, Jefferies wrote in a note. The budget will be positive for sectors related to affordable housing, investments, consumption and rate-sensitive businesses, the brokerage said.

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News / Budget 2024 / Budget could send Indian stock markets higher, new study predicts

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