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Break down historical post-crash volatility on the SPX

 


What else is there to say than the huge swings in the stock market lately? As with most other statistics I have written about recently, what we are seeing is almost unprecedented. The 21-day historical volatility (HV) of the S&P 500 (SPX) index is 87%. The only two times in history when this was exceeded were 1987 after Black Monday, when the index fell more than 20% in a single day, and 1929, triggering the Great Depression. Interestingly, what followed these two periods could not have been more different. Stocks rebounded quickly after the one-day drop in 1987, picking up to peaks in less than two years. After 1929, however, it took more than two decades for stocks to return to these lost levels.

The chart below also shows the 21-day median historical volatility of stocks in the S&P 500 index. In the rest of the article, Ill will compare the volatility of the index and stocks, then Ill will list some stocks that have experienced the largest and smallest changes in volatility since before the crisis.

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Index volatility nears equity volatility

The graph below shows a ratio comparing the 21-day HV of the S&P 500 index to the median HV of the stocks currently in the index. The ratio moved to one during the turmoil. Specifically, it reached 1.06. The other two times in the graph where this happened occurred in 2008 during the financial crisis and in 2015 during a market downturn. This move towards parity in difficult times reminds us that everything becomes correlated during a crash. Normally, the ratio averages about 2.0, which means that you get twice the volatility by playing a typical stock in the index compared to the index itself. But in these crazy times, you get almost as much volatility by playing the index.

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HV before / after crisis on individual stocks

I studied how the HV changed on individual stocks in the February 19 S&P 500 index (the highest recent of all time on the S&P 500 index) to their current level. At first, I thought I could find a group of stocks that trade like they did before all these crazy things started to happen. No stock was spared in this crash, however.

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