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The Fed has got a lot of cash to help the economy. Who will benefit?

 


But the authorities have stopped buying local debt and many lawmakers are urging them to think bigger. Designing a Direct Purchase Program is Not an Easy Task for the Fed as Public and Local Debt Markets Are Complicated and Direct Purchases Could Let the Fed Boost Locations, such as New State York, while leaving others, like Detroit, without much help.

This could well exceed $ 4 trillion, but it may not be. Funding from the Consolidated Revenue Fund to date has increased approximately 10-fold, but some future projects are likely to be more risky, and any program targeting less secure businesses may require more assurance from the Department from the Treasury. If this is true, dollars can be raised fewer times.

Banks and businesses in the Americas may also not require $ 4 trillion in loans, in which case part of the pool may remain untapped.

Short answer: Mr. Powell himself probably doesn’t know. The timing depends on how quickly the Fed can understand the needs of the Americas, determine the best way to meet them, and implement programs. The initiatives are legally and practically complex, so they can take some time: the project that targets the commercial paper market was announced on March 17, is still not operational. Other are already in action.

That’s the $ 4 trillion question. Since it is not known how long the coronavirus will last, neither is it known how many loans will be required. Design can also be very important here: if programs are poorly targeted or have too many strings attached and companies will not use them, even seemingly heavy programs might not help the economy.

It is also unclear how the cake will be divided. To date, $ 30 billion of pre-existing Treasury funding supports programs for large businesses, $ 10 billion supports the program for households and small businesses, and $ 10 billion supports a program for mutual funds. money market investments, which affect both large businesses and ordinary families. (A program, focused on the plumbing of the banking system, does not require the support of the Treasury.)

I will be watching your actions carefully, said Senator Elizabeth Warren to Mr. Powell and Mr. Mnuchin in a letter on Tuesday.

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