Updated 14 Apr 2020 5:12:17
Instead of rebuilding the frenzy after the virus passes, more scenarios are likely to return slowly. (Reuters: Thomas White)
So far, so good. Well, everything is as good as expected.
The battle for enduring coronavirus attacks paid off and the economy responded to the latest stimulus.
The coalition government has wisely shed most of its guiding philosophy over the past three decades because the scale of the problems it has faced has forced it to reduce its root path to big spending in an effort to save jobs and the economy.
And it works. According to research by AlphaBeta Consulting – run by Andrew Charlton, Counselor Kevin Rudd during the global financial crisis – the stimulus program halted an alarming drop in discretionary spending that shook the economy during the last week of March.
Spending per person fell 13 per cent below the normal level that week, before the $ 750 payment began to drop in 6.8 million Australian bank accounts.
While hordes of shoppers flock to supermarkets to purchase essential goods, anything considered unimportant is avoided, especially when retailers close their doors to protect employees. However, since payments fell, discretionary spending has jumped 26 percent.
Weekly consumption index per capita from January 19 to March 29. (Available: AlphaBeta / illion)
While travel and leisure have suffered greatly due to the worsening health crisis, there are many booming sectors. And not just the obvious ones like food commodities in the supermarket.
Retail, online subscription and food delivery services rose by more than 60 percent.
With many people being forced to stay at home, demand for home improvement products jumped 64 percent. The disturbingly clear winner, is online gambling with a 67 percent increase in demand.
There is no global coordination at this time
But what about the future?
To date, many have held onto the hope that the economy will recover quickly, and once COVID-19 is controlled, businesses will be reopened, workers re-employed, and companies that sleep suddenly due to increased demand will wake up.
Just like the end of the war, there will be street excitement and a spill of relief. It will be “revival” something to see.
We all live in hope. But it is better to leave at least one floor. Because, despite all the similarities between our politicians, from an economic perspective, this is completely different from war.
Wartime tends to see the economy run overtime, desperately trying to produce enough material to continue the struggle because employment, often sent to remote cinemas, is very limited in number.
Stay up to date on the latest coronavirus outbreaks
At present, the world economy is closed. Even before the coronavirus survived, there was more savings than investment, and at least in Australia, the economy threatened to stop.
Rather than rebuilding madness after the virus has passed, the most likely scenario is the slow return to restarting the stagnant global economy.
Even if we do pass through this crisis better than most, the US economy is facing great difficulties due to President Donald Trump’s reluctance to act decisively to stop the spread.
Australia is a small economy and very vulnerable to trade. The big drop in the global economy will hit home.
Lack of international coordination and cooperation is one of the most important aspects of this crisis. A decade ago, world leaders united to save the financial and banking system. Now they are at odds with each other.
The United States tends to influence the global recovery
Unlike Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and most of Europe, America has so far chosen not to protect its workforce from mass layoffs.
As most developed countries have announced payment plans to ensure that employees can survive a virus attack, the United States has announced a one-time payment.
American workers are forced to apply for social security and they are equal to us. And it applies to numbers, likes never seen before.
This graph from US investment bank Morgan Stanley puts the surprising reality in the historical context. Compare the 2008 crisis that caused mass unemployment and many Americans left their homes.
Charts: American Initial Jobless Claims from 1967 to 2020. (Trailer: Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley believes the worst has not happened.
“Economic indicators specifically indicate that the number of new claims is likely to remain in a seven-digit range over the next few weeks,” he said in a note to clients.
“Therefore, the cumulative number will increase over here as we move during the month of April.”
When America turned into the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak, it was not surprising that the economy was liberalized.
Estimated retail activity in the last week of March decreased by 97 percent. The number of deaths in New York and other major American cities has not reached its peak.
It may not be the last rescue package
Your question about coronavirus answers:
As much as our health policies have so far been limited by virus attacks on our soil, the risk remains high.
Our economy, which is closely related like ours with China and the United States, will suffer as long as these countries continue to falter.
When our economy develops, a large portion of our employment growth is in service industries such as retail, tourism and hospitality-related industries.
Our university has become an export industry, with most of its income dependent on foreign students, employing about 130,000 workers who teach over a million domestic students and 430,000 international students.
The industries were hardest hit.
What experts say about coronavirus:
While the federal government hopes that the JobKeeper program will help more than 6 million workers and that a significant increase in JobSeeker payments provide a temporary barrier to those who have no work, payments are limited.
They are only allowed to last six months.
Our bank increased a series of concessions for difficult families and companies, while owners were asked to help.
But the banks do not tolerate payments or even leave.
It includes unpaid mortgage payments at the life of the loan, which mainly makes capitalization of payments due on the loan.
It can only last for long time. At some point, if the business is slow to recover, unpaid loans should be classified as bad credit and written off.
This went directly to the bank’s profitability and began to put pressure on the Australian real estate market.
Unemployment is the single biggest threat to our economy.
We face eyeballs in debt, mostly to real estate.
Our housing is the most expensive in the world.
This debt, which amounts to 200 percent of national income, has become a serious headache for the Reserve Bank, as it seeks to keep the economy stable.
Even drunk analysts like AMP Capital, Shane Oliver expects a 20 percent drop in residential property and in itself would be enough to create serious problems for our economy.
The addition of the US-led retreat and the V-shaped recovery opportunities seems remote.
Six months is a long period of hibernation. There will be companies that cannot recover and workers who will not be re-employed. It is highly likely that the giant Morrison government rescue package will not be the last.
What you need to know about coronavirus:
Other infectious diseases,
respiratory system diseases,
Globalization – the economy,
First published April 14 2020 05:03:36
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