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Elections 2020: Can Trump Win The Popular Vote?

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Elections 2020: Can Trump Win The Popular Vote?

 

I’m not sure if everyone is so excited about the upcoming elections because we simply have nothing else to do, or if it is genuinely because they are excited.

Are we just so bored at this point from the lockdown and the fact that there are no sports to talk about, or is it because we really care that much. I’ll be honest, after learning that the same massive campaign contributors backed both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, I realized it was a hedged bet. It didn’t matter who won when it came to super-conglomerate corporations. They get the legislation they need no matter what because both candidates are in their pockets.

To piggy-back off this, not much has changed in the last few decades of politics for people like you and me – the vast majority of us who make less than millions of dollars per year. Not a single president has really done anything for us; Obamacare being the solitary exception.

Then came along Donald Trump, the change that many were looking forward to. The guy that was going to drain the swamp and shift the status quo. The only reason he was elected is because of the overall zeitgeist of what I very minimally lined out above; we needed a change.

Well, that change has come and the swamp was just loaded up with more gators. 300 CEOs, business execs, and lobbyists to be exact. Bureaucracy was supposed to be cut … and for a while, many paper-pusher jobs were cut. But now we are right back to where we were and bureaucratic salaries are actually slightly higher now – just a smidge– than they were before. So, what’s changed other than some roll-backs on environmental regulations ? Is the average everyday republican’s life any better now that Trump is in the office versus when Obama was? And is the average everyday democrat’s life any worse? The answer is a resounding no. And I think the only thing everyone can agree on is we are all tired of seeing a tiny-handed, orange man spout superlative riddled rhetoric on everything ‘pro’ followed by pejorative venom on everything ‘con’ in the news media and social media … every … single … day.

So, considering the fact that Trump has not been the political messiah the right side had hoped, will he be able to win the 2020 election in November, and furthermore, can Trump win the popular vote ?

Last time around the electoral college worked out in Trump’s favor. Despite losing by more than 2,860,000 votes, he won in decisive fashion via the electoral college. It takes 270 electoral votes to win, and Trump snatched up 306. Some might call that a landslide. But how does this happen?

Well, effectively once you win a state, you win the state and its set amount of votes. The opposing amount of votes are in effect, nullified. Some believe this is an unfair system, but it does make a bit of sense when you look at it more from a land-mass perspective. When you look at the counties, Trump won the grand majority of the United States . That said, Hillary won by a landslide in the most populated area, which big cities just happen to be left-leaning. So, the argument is: why should a few small areas that are stacked to the brim with like-minded people have complete control over rest? Hence, the electoral college.

But can Trump do it again? I’m not so sure. He might be able to win the electoral college again, but I think it will be much, much closer this time around. I seriously doubt he can win the popular vote. There are just too many people who feel (especially after 4 years) that Trump is a sexist who also incites racism in the United States. Now, I am not saying that it’s actually the case with Trump, but public opinion on him is not good for over half of the population. He is currently sitting at around a 43% approval rating. It’s not as bad as his 36% troughs and is about par for the course during his presidency. But trying to win the popular vote without being able to maintain even near a 50% approval rating is near impossible.

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