Are these our Oscar winners?

Can Will Smith, Ariana DeBose, Troy Kotsur and Jessica Chastain all rehearse at the Oscars?
Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos by Warner Bros, Walt Disney Studios, Apple TV+ and Searchlight Pictures

Although their majority has diminished recently, actors are still the most important and influential branch of the Academy. When they get together to hand out prizes to each other, it’s usually a good sign of how the Oscar winds are blowing. Sunday night’s SAG Awards were the first televised ceremony of the 2022 Oscar season, and recent history suggests that the lucky winners of the SAG’s individual film categories have a good chance of stepping onto the podium again this month. next: Over the past decade, Guilds have chosen aligned exactly with eventual Oscar winners four times.

A perfect match is on the line again this year, as all Sunday SAG winners have also been nominated for the big show. (The idea that Lady Gagas Oscar snub would make SAG honor Gucci House unfortunately turned out to be nothing more than hope.) What is the probability that each of the SAG winners will repeat at the Oscars? Let’s go through the contenders, from most likely to least likely.

Best Actor: Will Smith King Richard
Awards season is long, and as the months drag on, expert eyes can start to wander. Despite the fact that Will Smith was universally heralded as the best actor favorite as early as King Richard debuted at Telluride, once the schedule shifted to December, Oscar forecasters grew weary of the safe and reliable choice. They started talking about bad boy Benedict Cumberbatch or adorable Andrew Garfield. The Smiths SAG victory put everything back in place. Visibly moved by the outpouring of support for his performance, he delivered a pitch-perfect acceptance speech that was equal parts triumphant and graceful. At best, the Precursors act like TV dress rehearsals for the Oscars broadcast, and I’d say Smith’s speech did exactly what it needed if I didn’t suspect he already had that Oscar stitched up.

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Like Smith, DeBose was a Globe winner securing her first major podium of the season. An old So you think you can dance competitor and member of hamilton together, she used her time to thank her fellow actors for finally making her feel part of the club. This was another instance of the Guild cementing a favorite: while West Side Story fell from the high perch she momentarily occupied after ecstatic previews, DeBose has been rampant among the trailblazers and seems increasingly likely to follow her predecessor Rita Moreno to Oscar glory.

Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA
The first surprise of the night came on Seconding Actor, when Kotsurs stole the stage as a salty deaf dad beat presumptive favorite Kodi Smit-McPhee of The power of the dog. The Kotsur train had been gaining momentum in recent weeks, as the longtime actor went on a promotional blitz with a new set of profiles and interviews, and pundits began to wonder if Smit-McPhee, 25, had the seasoning that voters prefer in male winners. Much like he did at the Gothams, Kotsur charmed SAG audiences with his acceptance of ASL, pointing to his roots as a struggling actor and noting that he’s been a member of the guild since 2001. (A subtle way to point out the age gap with his younger rival?) Expect the bandwagon to be a lot more crowded: not only has Kotsur crafted a compelling tale of the grateful veteran who finally gets his due, but he also the feel-good feeling of being the easiest way for voters to reward CODA.

(A note on power of the dog: While the Best Picture favorite couldn’t pick up a win in any of the three categories it was nominated for, rivals like Belfast and Don’t look up also returned home empty-handed. There is a small chance that CODAs Best Cast was the first wave of a Parasitestyle for the indie, but it’s more likely to be akin to previous wins for the Black Panther and hidden numbers sets, a way to give a popular movie with few Best Picture stills its moment in the spotlight. I suspect Dogs blank has more to do with Smit-McPhees’ nomination being weaker than expected than the film itself losing ground.)

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, Tammy Faye’s eyes
Welcome to the mental hospital. At various points throughout the season, each of the five Best Actress nominees oscillated between looking like the favorite and looking completely out of the running. Chastains SAG’s win secures his ride to the top this week, and you can imagine a world where a combination of the SAG momentum, physical transformation, and lateness factor she has inspires Academy voters to vote for him. present this long-awaited trophy. (In this case, it is better to thank the Ting-Tings.) Still, in the likely event that neither Chastain nor Globe winner Nicole Kidman triumphs at the Critics Choice Awards, be well into another season of Best Actress mayhem, in which each forerunner goes to a different woman. Twitter seems to think the race comes down to Chastain vs. Penlope Cruz, but the only safe prediction is that everything you think today is going to sound incredibly silly two weeks from now.