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Yesterday was also a great Saturday for the film industry. In the middle of a multitude of openings, pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, cinemas were also supposed to open their doors to avid moviegoers this weekend. But many of them just aren’t.

Two of Britain’s biggest movie chains, Cineworld and Vue, were originally scheduled to open from July 10, but have now pushed back this date until the end of the month. Odeon opens a handful of locations in England this weekend, but the majority of its sites will not be open for a few weeks. Small independent cinemas should remain closed even longer, perhaps until the end of summer.

There has been speculation that the reopening time is at a movie. Principle, the new release by Oscar-winning director Christopher Nolan, was to be one of the biggest blockbusters of this year before the pandemic, and is one that many in the industry are watching closely. But it too was delayed, the release was initially planned for July 17, then postponed to July 31 when the pandemic struck, then it again to August 12.

Warner Bros, distributors of the $ 200 million film, are in a tight spot. There’s no point in launching an expensive blockbuster if there aren’t enough cinemas open for people to go there. But at the same time, for cinemas, it’s hard to justify reopening without the movies that people are actually going to want to see, especially people may be reluctant to mingle with strangers after months of foreclosure. So, are the cinema chains, film distributors and the public participating in a gigantic chicken game?

Data from other markets suggests that is an appetite for films by members of the public. In France, cinemas sold more than a million tickets in their first nine days after reopening, even with social distancing. Cinemas in the UK planning to open this weekend appear to have sold some screenings, particularly Oscar-winning films Parasite, who had a successful execution before the lockout.

National CineMedia research in the United States, which may be of direct interest, also shows that audiences are thrilled to return to the big screen experience: 95% fail to go to the movies, 92% eagerly await reopening of cinemas. Behavioral movie fans may be more enthusiastic than people who only see occasional blockbusters, people with young families may be more willing to go, according to Han behavior consulting firm Han Han-Lloyd. just to get the kids out of the house for an afternoon.

But most people will only go to the movies if they want to see something. According to Hanmer-Lloyd, about two-thirds of cinema visits come from people who go to a specific film, with the remaining third of visits from people who go to the cinema without a specific title. And unlike pubs or restaurants, movie distributors only have one chance to release a multi-million dollar movie like Principle if it works, they can’t put it back the next month.

I don’t think it’s a chicken game, says Kathryn Jacobs, CEO of Pearl and Dean, a film advertising company. The reason the versions have been pushed back is that all versions are global in nature. To maximize the box office, you will try to publish it at the same time, all versions of Nolan have the same day and the same date worldwide.

A film like Principle is large enough to cause a ripple effect, with smaller films dispersing in its wake like a school of fish splitting to avoid a shark. You work on the basis of where the audience is going to fall, where the space is to let your film breathe, says Jacobs.

She thinks that the main reason why cinemas delay is not because of the lack of good films, but because of the basic economy. In some of the larger movie channels, there may be a minimum number of employees you need to keep things running physically and it may not be profitable to open, especially while the government still pays the major part of wages via the leave scheme. Likewise, in small chains, social distance can never be economical. survey by the Independent Cinema Office found that 41% of the small cinemas surveyed would not be able to enforce the requirements of social distancing and therefore could not open.

Social distancing also means that the most important releases can be shown on more screens than usual, as cinemas adapt to demand, which could mean less space for less attractive films than they could only be broadcast a few times a week instead of everyday, for example. .

Ultimately, the viability of cinemas will depend on how safe people feel when they return. The big chains wanted to emphasize the steps to protect customers, they use PPE for staff, new reservation systems that establish the distance between friends from different households and machines that can disinfect an auditorium in a few minutes. It will be essential to communicate that the screenings are safe for potential viewers, while encouraging them to continue spending money on things other than tickets that contribute heavily to cinema revenues, people may be willing to watch a movie while wearing a face mask, but will they want to eat popcorn through one?

Jacobs remains optimistic with an overabundance of big movies now postponed for the last few months of the year, and many more people working from home, she thinks that daytime or early evening screenings could see a surge in popularity.

When it comes to home streaming services, the other big elephant in the room, she’s not too worried about studios trying to stream movies directly to the home audience for about the same price as a ticket. unique cinema. It’s not the same thing, she says. It’s this thing of just immersing yourself. It is the last solitary space without telephone and without interruption, while being in a crowd and feeling this emotion and the pleasure of watching something with other people.

At a safe social distance, of course.

Amit Katwala is the cultural editor of WIRED. He tweets from @amitkatwala

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