Striking actors and writers could be a nightmare scenario for Hollywood

• For the first time since 1960, Hollywood actors and writers are on strike at the same time.
• The two-union strike could force a quick resolution with Hollywood studios.
• But some industry watchers believe a combined strike will prolong the shutdown much longer.

For the first time in 63 years, Hollywood faces two simultaneous guild strikes. The writers came out 10 weeks ago, and the cast hit their own (already extended) July 12 deadline to negotiate a new contract with studios.

SAG-AFTRA, the actors’ union, announced on Thursday that it would go on strike at midnight Friday. Fran Drescher, the union’s president, made an impassioned statement of solidarity not just with Hollywood writers, but with workers everywhere.

At the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, the organization representing Hollywood studios and streamers, she said, “The template is in place.” She and Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, the union’s executive director and chief negotiator, said their members were prepared to hurt entertainment conglomerates, which have profited from Hollywood’s new business model while pressing artists and artisans who lead.

The action of the Writers Guild of America has widely stop most film and television production. When the actors hit the picket lines on Friday, it will disrupt the entertainment industry even further.

“Everyone is really nervous because there will be no cash flow that they will not earn anything“said a talent agent.

Some observers see a combined strike hastening the end of the impasse, while others see it as an extension of the industry’s paralysis.

A quick recap: The WGA and SAG-AFTRA were unable to reach new agreements on salaries, the use of artificial intelligence and other issues with the AMPTP which represents more than 350 studios , networks and streamersincluding Netflix, Disney and Amazon.

The WGA has been on strike since early May. Like WGA members before them, SAG-AFTRA members voted overwhelmingly on June 5 to authorize a strike.

The stakes were pretty high with the writers’ strike. The last time they walked off the job, in 2007-2008, the work stoppage lasted 100 days, shutting down more than 60 TV shows and plummeting ratings and ad sales. It cost the state of California over $2 billion and over 37,700 jobs.

With actors joining the fight, the logistics and optics of the move change drastically. But the industry landscape, issues and work environment are largely different now than in the middle years. Here are two ways a broader work stoppage could play out, based on conversations with a handful of industry insiders.

The nightmare scenario

Jonathan Handel, an entertainment attorney who previously worked for the WGA, told Insider ahead of the official cast announcement that he thinks the industry is in for a long haul, if only by because of the complexity and the existence of the problems.

It’s hard to overstate the magnitude of the change that has swept Hollywood since 2008, as Handel sees it. The rise of streaming has upended the way writers and actors are paid. Generative AI, with its potential to write entire scripts and recreate actors, has exploded. Media conglomerates, meanwhile, are crippled by debt and in trouble to offset declines in traditional television with streaming dollars.

“There’s so much at stake,” Handel told Insider. “I don’t think filmed entertainment has changed more rapidly in such a short time than since the end of World War II.”

The work environment has also changed significantly. The movement is having a moment, as evidenced by other unions, from teachers to truckers join hollywood writers on the picket line. This kind of moral support will be essential in helping writers and actors stay longer.

Additionally, on the AMPTP side, core members include legacy studios, pure streamers, and tech companies that aren’t all on the same page, which could hamper their ability to move as a unit for end a knock.

With companies like NBCUniversal and Disney still dependent on a new fall TV season on the network which is already in jeopardy to attract viewers and satisfy advertisers, Netflix would “probably be happy to see the collapse of Netflix television. fall,” Handel said.

The 2007-8 writers’ strike ended after the Directors Guild of America reached its own agreement with the AMPTP, providing the framework for a WGA agreement. As winter faded into spring, an impending Oscars telecast also provided the incentive to resolve the issues.

The directors reached their own new three-year deal with AMPTP in June, but there are outstanding issues that are unique to the writers and actors. Staffing writers’ rooms is a major concern for the WGA, while SAG-AFTRA members are focusing more on AI, observers say. The Oscars telecast (which has lost a lot of its audience in recent years anyway) is months away, and there are talk to postpone the Emmys that usually air from September to November or later.

A combined writers’ and actors’ strike “could well go until the end of the year,” Handel said.

The dream scenario

On the other hand, it is also likely that the contracts of both guilds will be negotiated simultaneously and there will be efficiencies where there are common concerns.

Media companies that rely on TV ad sales in the fall could bring the rest of the AMPTP members with them to resolve the strike.

And having high-profile players on the picket lines, along with the good vibes unions enjoy these days, will generate buzz and positive PR for the strikers, which in turn will inspire media companies to conclude, said Paul Hardart, director of the Entertainment, Media and Technology Program at NYU’s Stern School of Business.

Disney CEO Bob Iger, along with Peter Chernin, then chairman and chairman and CEO of Fox, helped break the deadlock to end the strike in 2008. So far, stakeholders in the industry told Insider, Iger stayed away this time around, but there’s hope he could return once again.

Iger was not among the Hollywood heavyweights, including Disney Entertainment co-chairmen Alan Bergman and Dana Walden, who joined a call Monday to discuss the idea of ​​federal mediation, according to reports. “I had conversations that led me to believe he was not involved,” Handel said.

“I think the SAG strike is speeding things up,” Hardart said. “I think you’ll see pressure from outside forces, whether it’s the governor of California, the president of the United States getting things done.”

But like most people who venture into opinions about the hot summer simmering in Hollywood, Hardart concluded with a caveat: “I could be completely wrong.”

“At some point, even streamers run out of content and companies just have to make a deal,” Handel said. “The industry just can’t keep knocking.”