Malayalam Cinema Shines as Bollywood Recalibrates in 2024, Says Producer Siddharth Roy Kapur in Indian Industry Analysis (EXCLUSIVE)

As the Indian film industry reaches mid-2024, Malayalam-language cinema in the southern state of Kerala has become the success story, while traditional powerhouse Bollywood recalibrates after an uneven start to the year.

This year has been the year of Malayalam cinema, says former Disney India chief and veteran producer Siddharth Roy Kapur in his biannual analysis of the Indian entertainment sector for VarietyWith four films crossing INR 100 crores [$12 million] each at the box office, it really found its commercial success.

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The four films that Roy Kapur is referring to are Manjummel Boys ($29 million), The Goat Life ($19 million), Aavesham ($18.6 million) and Premalu ($16 million) which occupy positions three, six, eight and nine respectively on the 2024 Indian box office chart.

If Malayalam films have long been praised by critics for the richness of their storytelling and the quality of their production, in 2024 they experienced unprecedented commercial success on a national scale. As they are made on relatively lower budgets, the return on investment is greater than their Hindi-language Bollywood counterparts.

This breakthrough represents a continuation of the pan-indian cinema trend South Indian language films have found a wider audience across the country in recent years. In 2024, Telugu-language Hanu-Man is the highest-grossing film of the year so far with $42 million.

For Bollywood, 2024 has so far failed to match the stellar box office performance of 2023, with the bright sparks being Fighter, Shaitaan, Crew and Article 370. However, Kapur sees encouraging signs in the success of several low- and mid-budget films that exceeded expectations.

Films like Munjya, Srikanth and Mr. & Mrs. Mahi have managed to stand out, notes Kapur. For the industry, it is a very encouraging story to see that even medium and small films can succeed if the concept is strong enough.

This trend marks a change from 2023, when big-budget shows dominated the box office. Kapur believes audiences are signaling a desire for new narrative approaches.

The public tells us that they are a little tired of certain outdated clichés, he observes. It challenges us to tell stories differently. If we do this, he will come.

The relative underperformance of some highly anticipated big-budget films in early 2024, including Bade Miyan Chote Miyan and Maidaan, has reinforced this message. While it is too early to see concrete changes in commissioning practices, Kapur expects the success of smaller films to encourage young producers and directors working with smaller budgets.

It gives courage to many small producers and directors who currently cannot afford to raise the capital needed to make a spectacle film, he says. It sends the message that there is more hope than you think.

Hollywood's performance in India has been particularly subdued this year. No Hollywood film really broke through this year, Kapur observes. Although Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire did decent business with $15.9 million, it failed to reach the blockbuster status of previous years in India.

This reflects Hollywood’s global performance, which has been hard to compare with India’s relative resilience over the past 18 months. The situation underscores the growing strength of local content to win over Indian audiences, Kapur noted.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, there are several major pan-India releases on the horizon, including Allu Arjun’s Pushpa: The Rule Part 2, Kamal Haasans Indian 2, Rajinikanth’s Vettaiyan, Suriyas Kanguva and NTR Jrs Devara: Part 1. The sci-fi epic Kalki 2898 AD, starring Prabhas, Amitabh Bachchan, Haasan and Deepika Padukone, recently released to a massive opening. These films will test whether the trend of regionally produced films achieving national success continues to gain momentum. The most anticipated Bollywood films include Singham Again and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3.

On the streaming side, 2024 saw a relative cooling of the fierce competition that has characterized recent years. Kapur attributes this to industry consolidation, including pending the Disney-Reliance merger in India.

I expect the remainder of 2024 to be a period where people will continue to keep a low profile, predicts Roy Kapur. He expects a further push from major streaming platforms in 2025, once strategies are readjusted.

While no streaming show, barring Netflix’s Heeramandi, has so far achieved headline status in 2024, Kapur points to the success of comedy specials like The Kapil Sharma Show on Netflix as an interesting innovation. He also notes the continued strength of return seasons for popular series like Prime Video’s Panchayat and Mirzapur.

The first half of 2024 also saw significant viewer attention captured by political content on YouTube during India's long election season, as well as coverage of IPL cricket.

As the industry looks to the future, Roy Kapur expresses hope that India newly appointed Minister of Information and Broadcasting, which oversees both the IT and media portfolios, will promote a more integrated approach to regulating digital and traditional media.

“What I hope is that there will be more freedom and freedom for creative expression,” says Roy Kapur. “It would be great to reduce regulation on content creation. »

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