Best Actor Predictions for Upcoming Oscars

Voting for nominations will take place from January 8-12, 2025, with the official Oscar nominations announced on January 17, 2025. Final voting will take place from February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Academy Awards telecast will air on Sunday, March 2, and will air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/4:00 p.m. PT. We’re updating our picks throughout awards season, so keep checking back with IndieWire for all our latest news. 2025 Oscar Predictions.

The state of the race

While there may not yet have been any films released in 2024 that seem like sure winners for the Best Picture award, there are already a few Best Actor contenders who could go all the way.

Consider Colman Domingo, who just earned his first Oscar nomination for his performance in the Netflix biopic “Rustin,” with “Sing Sing,” an A24 prison drama that premiered at last year’s Toronto International Film Festival and is about the transformative power of art. As Divine G, Domingo displays a tenderness that is sure to win over audiences when the film hits theaters in late summer.

Hit Man star Glen Powell also took advantage of the momentum of a strong fourth quarter to co-write the Netflix film with Texas native and five-time Oscar nominee Richard Linklater. While it was his last film, “Anyone But You,” that proved the 35-year-old could draw box office crowds, “Hit Man” seemed to mark a turning point that showed Powell had more to offer, winning over more ambitious moviegoers.

Two examples of players who seem more likely to have a big year This year are André Holland and Sebastian Stan. Both actors had credits that appeared at Sundance, with Holland in Titus Kaphar’s directorial debut, “Exhibiting Forgiveness,” and Stan in A24’s “A Different Man.” The latter performance won the Silver Bear for Best Actor in a Leading Role at the Berlin Film Festival, meaning Stan may have the slightest head start in that regard. But as for the other two films, Stan’s take on Donald Trump in “The Apprentice” may never see the light of day, given that it has yet to be distributed. Meanwhile, little is known about Neon’s “The Actor,” but roles in projects like “Moonlight” and “High Flying Bird” have long indicated that Holland is someone who would garner attention in the right leading role.

Finally, “Kinds of Kindness” star Jesse Plemons won best actor at Cannes for his roles in the Yorgos Lanthimos triptych. With the Searchlight Pictures release already out in theaters, the former best supporting actor nominee joins a string of first-half male lead performances that have left an impression on arthouse theatergoers. Others include “Challengers”’ Josh O’Connor, who is arguably a supporting role, but the audience understands the story much more from his character’s perspective than from Mike Faist’s. Austin Butler in “The Bikeriders” is the opposite situation, where other characters do more talking, but the narrative revolves around his character Benny.

Examples of highly anticipated upcoming performances include Daniel Craig in Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer,” an adaptation of a William S. Burroughs novel; Ralph Fiennes in “Conclave,” Edward Berger’s papal election thriller; and Andrew Garfield in A24's upcoming romantic film “We Live in Time.”

Plus, there are blockbuster sequels like “Joker: Folie à Deux” and “Gladiator II,” whose predecessors both won best actor Oscars for their stars. With the first, star Joaquin Phoenix has a small chance of being the first actor to win an Oscar twice for the same role. With the second, even a nomination for star Paul Mescal would be an incredible feat, as this is only the Irish star's seventh film.

The contenders are listed alphabetically below. No actor will be considered a favorite until I see the film.

Pioneers:
Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”)
Josh O'Connor (“Challengers”)
Jesse Plemons (“Kinds of Kindness”)
Glen Powell (“Hitman”)

Competitors:
Austin Butler (“The Bikers”)
Daniel Craig (“Queer”)
Adam Driver (“Megalopolis”)
Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”)
Andrew Garfield (“We Live in Time”)
André Holland (“The Actor”)
André Holland (“Exposing Forgiveness”)
Jharrel Jérôme (“Unstoppable”)
Barry Keoghan (“Bird”) Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”)
Gary Oldman (“Parthenope”)
Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”)
Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)
John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”)