“Yellowstone” fans are not present

Taylor Sheridan's Fifth Season Yellowstone — made famous in large part by its lead actor Kevin Costner — had the best scripted series premiere of 2022 with 12.1 million viewers. Equally impressive, the series posted double-digit gains in all demos, including a 52% increase in adults 18-34 for a cumulative 5.6 rating in adults 18-49, or 7 million viewers. And it averaged 11.5 million viewers for season five over seven days of viewing.

So where were all those millions of Yellowstone fans over the weekend of June 28-30 when Costner's big-budget film Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1 has been released in more than 4,000 theaters in North America? Most audiences have not seen the film, which Costner co-wrote, directed and stars in.

The film grossed just $11 million upon opening, a disappointing start for a movie that cost $100 million to produce. In terms of attendance, that means about 1 million people showed up, according to EntTelligence, a leading entertainment research firm. By comparison, 3.6 million people attended the screening. A quiet place: first day and 5 million for Inside Out 2.

By the end of the weekend, all of Hollywood was wondering what impact the opening might have. Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 2which is set to be released in no less than six weeks, on August 16 (tickets are already on sale). Sources close to the case say there are no plans to change the release date of the second film at this time. The exhibition executives say the same. Other sources add that it is too early to say. Horizon Chapter 1 a box-office failure, and which – like a slowly moving weed – still has time to find its audience.

Costner is known for his self-confidence, but even he shocked Hollywood when he announced he would direct for the first time in decades and make four films. Horizon films chronicling the great migration to the West during the Civil War. When no studio would support his vision, Dances with Wolves The Oscar winner raised the financing for the first two films, including $38 million of his own money, an undisclosed sum from two mystery investors and proceeds from selling the rights to foreign distributors. In April, Warner Bros. signed a distribution deal and announced an unprecedented plan to release the films. Chapter One — which has a running time of three hours and one minute — and Chapter Two less than two months apart. Costner, who eventually left Yellowstone in the middle of his Horizon commitments, is also responsible for marketing costs.

Costner believed his film would strike a chord in the heart of America, just as Yellowstone a – and while he has indeed played better in the mountain regions, the Midwest, the South and the South-Central states, he has so far failed to galvanize his fans or Yellowstone viewers to the desired degree.

Costner and Warners always knew Horizon The audience would be older, but that age range is not enough to justify a big-budget movie. More than 60% of ticket buyers were over 45, including 47% over 55, according to PostTrak exit polls. It’s rare for a movie to be that old. Among other age groups, only 11% of ticket buyers were between 18 and 24, followed by 14% for those aged 25 to 34 and 11% for those aged 35 to 44.

People over 55 aren't known for rushing out to see a movie on the weekend it's released, and it's possible Horizon Chapter 1 could benefit from a strong multiple. Yet even if it triples its opening, it would still be considered a financial failure in theaters and lose tens of millions of dollars unless it does well on premium VOD and other home entertainment or ancillary platforms. Premium VOD, which typically costs $20 per rental, could be a boon for Horizonnotes Paul Dergarabedian, chief box office analyst at Comscore.

“The streaming potential in the future is huge for this franchise,” he said, adding Horizon “has an appeal to older people, for whom this type of film is ideal.”

As this article went to press, Costner had not commented on the film's initial performance. As the weekend approached, he said Weekly Entertainment It's wrong to focus on a film's opening weekend grosses. “If we put that much pressure on that, we're going to be disappointed. I'm really happy that Horizon “The product looks the way it’s supposed to look and it’s going to stay that way for the rest of its life. And that’s really important to me in this process.”

Horizon — Chapter 1 The film is also doing well overseas after its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, but so far it's unclear how it's performing in the markets where it's been released in conjunction with its North American debut (Warner Bros., which is handling the film in the U.K., hasn't released opening numbers, suggesting it hasn't done much business). Westerns can be tough sells, both overseas and in North America.

The fate of the third and fourth Horizon The plot of the films is unclear, as they are not part of the distribution deal with Warner Bros., meaning they could become a streaming service. Costner has only shot a few days on the third film and will resume production in August. At Cannes in May, he said he would need to find more financing to finish the third film.

June 20, a few days before Horizon — Chapter 1 opened, Paramount announced that the second half of the fifth and final season of Yellowstone — without Costner — will debut on November 20. The next day, Costner posted a message to his fans on Instagram explaining why they won't see it, with a little nudge to see Horizon.

“It's something that really changed me. I loved it, and I know you loved it,” Costner said. “I love the relationship that we were able to develop, and I'll see you in the movies.”