Russell gets chance to make up for Montreal mishaps with Hollywood, but at home · RaceFans

Hollywood may have once again descended on the Formula 1 paddock at Silverstone, but Saturday's qualifying session produced a result that could have been plucked straight from Tinsel Town.

Three British drivers occupy the first three places on the grid for their home Grand Prix, led by George Russell, a man enjoying the best seven-day spell of his Formula One career ever.

And what could be more fitting for the British Grand Prix than three Britons leading the field from the start? A race in the rain, of course.

The last wet Grand Prix was also the last time Russell started from pole this season in Montreal. Russell led the first quarter of the race until a series of mistakes meant he lost any chance of a better result than third. Asked by RaceFans how he could avoid a similar crash on Sunday, Russell insisted he was a wiser driver after what happened in Canada.

“I said that after Montreal, my risk/reward ratio was pushed to its maximum and that worked against me at certain times,” he admitted.

And then you have to remember that the race is won at the end, no matter what happens before. So it was a good lesson for me. We still came away with a podium, but each scenario is so different.

With the risk of rain extremely high and the top five drivers on the grid having reason to believe they can challenge for victory tomorrow, there are a number of scenarios that could play out on Sunday. Whichever one is chosen, it is likely to be one of the most entertaining and exciting races of this increasingly captivating season.

Weather report

If you are lucky enough to attend the Silverstone Grand Prix next Sunday, don't forget to bring waterproof clothing, a poncho or an umbrella. Because you will need them.

The relentless rain that has been falling over the weekend is stubborn enough to continue into Sunday, with showers continuing to fall until the start of the Grand Prix at 3pm local time. Although the risk of rain is lower in the hour before the start of the race, the current forecast is for a high probability of rain until the end of the race.

Qualifying showed how quickly the Silverstone track surface can dry and how much grip levels can increase in a matter of minutes once the sun comes out. But with sustained, heavy rain over several hours, as was the case before final practice, it can take much longer for all the water soaked into the asphalt to dissipate, meaning the dry line can be much slower to develop despite 20 cars running on it.

If, by some strange environmental miracle, the weather remains completely dry, the expected ambient temperatures of 15°C would make this the coldest British Grand Prix since 2009. That year, Red Bull won. Does this bode well for Max Verstappen who will start in fourth position?

To start

While most circuits come down to the few seconds between the lights going out on the grid and the leaders turning one, in terms of early race suspense, Silverstone consistently provides excitement throughout most of the first lap.

From the multi-corner battle between Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton at Abbey to its shocking end at Copse in 2021, to last year when Lando Norris charged off the line while team-mate Oscar Piastri pressured Verstappen all the way to that same Copse corner, Silverstone's opening sectors offer plenty of overtaking opportunities before the drivers even reach the Hangar Straight.

In the last 10 races at Silverstone, the pole-starter has only led the opening lap five times. But curiously, that hasn't happened since the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix of the Covid-hit 2020 season.

Last year, Norriss took the lead in his home grand prix ahead of Verstappen, prompting one of the loudest roars Silverstone has heard in recent times. Can he do better this time and beat both Mercedes to take the lead at lights out?

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Strategy

Speaking to RaceFans after qualifying, Pirelli Motorsport Director Mario Isola stressed that all the data gathered from the three practice sessions confirmed their predictions that a one-stop strategy is the best approach.

If it's dry tomorrow, the quickest strategy is to start on soft grass and move to medium grass, Isola explained.

There is also the option to start on medium and switch to hard during the second stint of the race. In this case, you have a very open window for a pit stop. So if you are considering a more conservative strategy with more flexibility, a medium-hard strategy is also an option.

On paper, a double-stop is slower, unless the degradation of the compounds is more significant than on Friday. In this case, the double-stop could be an option, obviously using two sets of soft and one set of medium.

If the race starts in wet conditions, expect teams to try to switch to intermediates for as long as possible. Silverstone is a very demanding circuit in terms of the loads the tyres are subjected to with many fast corners and sections like Maggots and Becketts, which causes extremely wet tyres to overheat compared to most other circuits. This could prompt drivers to try to brave the intermediates for as long as possible if the rain increases, or to switch quickly from wet to intermediates if the rain starts to ease.

Exceeding

From the first braking zone at Aintree to The Loop just after, through Brooklands at the end of the Wellington Straight, Copse Corner, Stowe and even Vale towards the end of the lap, Silverstone is a circuit that offers overtaking opportunities throughout the lap with or without DRS.

The nature of the circuit also means that a driver who is being passed, particularly in the first sector, often has an immediate opportunity to fight back. If you are being passed on the inside in The Loop, come back on the inside in Village and regain your position, or slide along the Wellington Straight to attack again in Brooklands.

If the weather is dry, overtaking could be limited by polluted air and tyre wear in what would normally be a one-stop race. However, if rain affects the game, there could be thrilling wheel-to-wheel battles as was the case in Saturday's wet Formula 2 race.

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Safety cars

Given that Silverstone is such a wide and flowing circuit, it is surprising how often incidents occur that result in the Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car being deployed. Indeed, only one of the last ten Grands Prix held at the circuit, the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix in 2020, has been held entirely on green without any intervention. There has not been a British Grand Prix without a Safety Car or VSC since 2012.

Due to the possibility of rain, it is possible that the race will start behind the safety car if conditions prove too wet before the start. However, this seems unlikely given the current forecast.

The very long pit lane makes stopping under Safety Car or VSC ideal as the reduced track speeds will significantly reduce time lost in the pits. A well-timed intervention can always turn a race around, but with rain and a strong historical tendency for Safety Car intervention, it could well be a major factor on Sunday.

One to watch

While all eyes will rightly be on what could be an incredible battle at the front, Nico Hulkenberg, who started from sixth on the grid in his Haas, should not be overlooked.

Last weekend he managed to finish in the same position, although his team principal admitted that the team's race pace had been faster at the previous round in Barcelona, ​​but he was unlucky to gain a position higher than 11th. Here at Silverstone, Haas has a range of new parts that seem to work well out of the box.

If Hulkenberg can exploit them to finish in the top 10 again, then they will make a strong statement of intent to RB ahead of them in the championship.

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Up to you

What do you expect from this British Grand Prix which could prove to be exciting and unpredictable? Share your opinion on the British Grand Prix in the comments.

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