2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (July)

As Venice and (most of) Toronto have unveiled their festival lineups, we have more information than ever about the upcoming Oscar races, reinforcing some early predictions, introducing new possibilities, and more.

Focus Features Conclave The film released its first trailer last week, and while it's bypassing Venice for Telluride and TIFF, Ralph Fiennes remains in the lead. If A24 sticks with Colman Domingo, he should be a safe bet. Sing sing opened last week to a large number of people in a very limited version, it will be tested during its wider launch on August 2.

Daniel Craig will be at the Lido at the end of next month with Luca Guadagnino Weird and despite the fact that the film started its festival run without distribution, it holds up well. But really, who's going to pick it up? It won't be a major studio, so who among the indies and semi-indies needs a Best Actor contender? Amazon MGM has Jharrel Jerome in unstoppable (a TIFF first) and Ethan Herisse in The Nickel Boys (they're going to NYFF and probably Telluride) and whatever they do with Josh O'Connor and Mike Faist at the Challengers. A24 is stacked. Holland, Michigan looks more like an acting vehicle for Nicole Kidman than a starring role for Matthew Macfadyen. NEON has André Holland in The actor and Michael Shannon in The end. Netflix is ​​the underdog here; although it does have John David Washington in The piano lessonIt is his supporting partners who generate the necessary buzz and attention. Hitman It seems like an easy Golden Globe nomination for rising star Glen Powell, but Oscar? I don't think so. Apple has the Steve McQueen Blitz this year, but there's no contender for Best Actor (probably). But Apple and Queer don't seem like a likely pairing. Perhaps Sony Pictures Classics can come to the rescue, having successfully campaigned for Guadagnino's film Call me by your name to four Oscar nominations – including best actor – and one win.

Timothée Chalamet Throws a Big Electric Guitar into the Race – Speaking of Call me by your name – of which A complete strangerin which he plays the role of Bob Dylan, has just completed principal photography and has released a two-and-a-half-minute short film. trailer this morning. As Searchlight Pictures presents Cannes Best Actor winner Jesse Plemons, the June release of Types of Kindness The film was a hit and the studio put James Mangold into rapid post-production to release the film by December. It would almost be strange not to have a musician biopic to lean on this year and with the Bruce Springsteen film starring Jeremy Allen White set to come out late next year, it would be prudent to stay away from it this season.

Rumors are circulating that Clint Eastwood Juror #2 won't be ready for 2024, but literally no one is faster in post-production than the two-time Oscar winner, but if that's the case, then Nicholas Hoult is giving Warner Bros. one shot at Joaquin Phoenix, reprising his Oscar-winning film Joker role in the sequel Joker: Madness Twowide-open.

The Oscar nominations will be announced on January 17, 2025, and the 97th Academy Awards will take place on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscars Best Actor predictions for the month of July.

• 1. Ralph Fiennes Conclave (Focus Features)
• 2. Let's sing, let's sing by Colman Domingo (A24)
• 3. Daniel Craig Queer (coming soon)
• 4. Timothée Chalamet A Perfect Stranger (Searchlight Pictures)
• 5. Paul Mescal Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
• 6. Joaquin Phoenix Joker: Madness Two (Warner Bros)
• 7. Andre Holland The Actor (NEON)
• 8. Jharrel Jerome Unstoppable (Amazon MGM)
• 9. Sebastian Stan, a different man (A24)
• 10. The Kinds of Kindness by Jesse Plemons (Searchlight Pictures)

Shortly : Ethan Herisse Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM), Jesse Eisenberg A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Mike Faist Challengers (Amazon MGM), Andrew Garfield We Live in Time (A24), Oscar Issac In the Hands of Dante (TBA), Cillian Murphy Little Things Like This (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions), Josh O'Connor Challengers (Amazon MGM), Michael Shannon The End (NEON), John David Washington The Piano (Netflix)

Other contenders: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (TBA), Austin Butler, Bikers (Focus Features), Adam Driver, Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Jacob Elordi, Fast Horses (Dimension Films), Richard Gere, Oh, Canada (TBA), Tom Hanks, Here (Sony/TriStar Pictures), André Holland, Forgiveness (Roadside Attractions), Barry Keoghan, The Bird (MUBI), Glen Powell, Hit Man (Netflix), Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), Robbie Williams, The Better Man (Paramount Pictures)

Lead or support?: Kieran Culkin A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Willam Dafoe Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Mike Faist Challengers (Amazon MGM), Matthew Macfadyen Holland, Michigan (Amazon MGM), Josh OConnor Challengers (Amazon MGM)

2024 or 2025?: Timothée Chalamet A Complete Stranger (Searchlight Pictures), George Clooney Jay Kelly (Netflix), Ed Harris Long Days Journey Into Night (MGM), Nicholas Hoult Juror No. 2 (Warner Bros), Gabriel LaBelle SNL 1975 (Sony Pictures), Adam Sandler Jay Kelly (Netflix), Denzel Washington Up and Down (Apple Original Movies)