Hollywood is slowing down – Film and TV production has fallen by 40% in the last two years

Anyone who works in the film and television industry can tell you that it is becoming difficult to find work. In all areas of production, there has been much criticism as to the exact reasons for this situation. RNo matter who is to blame, a ProdPro report presented in the Los Angeles Times breaks down the analysis detailing the overall decline in production since 2022. Let’s see why this might be the case.

COVID-19 and mergers

COVID-19 has devastated the film and television industry. It’s a blow from which we have yet to fully recover (and may never recover). Theaters were closed and physical production was impossible as the world recovered from an unprecedented pandemic. The world was, quite frankly, unprepared.

While COVID may have been the catalyst, the system was already doomed in many ways. The Disney-Fox merger, which closed on March 20, 2019, was a wake-up call for many creatives working in the industry. The merger of two major studios was already a major blow to production, as there would now be fewer places to make movies. And yes, 20th Century Fox still exists as 20th Century Studios, but the amount of (for lack of a better word) “content” being produced remains lower than it was before the merger. Disney is now the parent company, so if Disney doesn’t want it, 20th Century Studios won’t produce it.

The merger also set a precedent that Discovery-Warner Bros. and Amazon-MGM would soon follow. Even fewer places to make movies. There's even a deal in the works for a merger between Paramount and Skydance, with Sony Pictures snooping around. So fewer places to make movies means fewer movies to make. And I'm sure some people think that since these studios still exist, there shouldn't be a decline in the number of movies and series they produce. But keep in mind that these studios only exist as subsidiaries of their parent companies. So if Disney wants to make something (like “Deadpool”) that doesn't necessarily fit the Disney brand, they release it under the 20th Century banner. Same with Amazon releasing MGM movies, and so on.

A slow recovery

Despite ups and downs, production levels have never fully recovered in a post-COVID world. While 2022 saw a return to theaters with “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar: Waterfall,” the industry continued to limp along. The proverbial explosion of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” reinvigorated the movie industry in 2023. Great things were produced, even if audiences didn’t respond to them the way they used to. Box office profits rarely rise the way they used to. People got used to streaming movies at home, and studios responded by releasing movies on digital video on demand just weeks after their theatrical release.

I’m not blaming streaming services for anything here. But the fact is that while streaming giants like Amazon, Netflix, and Apple were producing more movies for theaters, studios like Disney, Paramount, Warner Bros., and Universal were creating their own streaming services and content. The priority was to offer their movies and series digitally on their own terms. This meant, among other things, that they could benefit from shorter theatrical release windows and offer their films on their streaming platform whenever they wanted and still make a profit. And audiences noticed. I have plenty of friends who would rather just wait for a movie to be available to stream than pay $20 a ticket to see it in theaters.

But this streaming model created another problem that would ultimately impact the industry in 2023…

Strikes, strikes and (maybe) more strikes

The industry took a major hit during the Writer's Guild of America (May to September 2023) and Screen Actors Guild (July to November 2023) strikes. Productions essentially shut down while the AMPTP negotiated to get things back up and running.

This year, the other largest film production union, the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IASTE), is renegotiating its contract. That means another strike is possible, though unlikely. LA Times reports that an agreement has been reached between IATSE and AMPTP but has not yet been ratified at the time of publication of this article. As the ProdPro report indicates, even the threat of a possible The IATSE strike “has made it more difficult for independent film producers to obtain production bonds.”

There was a lot of criticism leveled at studios, writers, actors, etc., during last year's strikes. But a lot of the tension was due to the proliferation of streaming platforms and, quite frankly, corporate greed over how to distribute funds to those who were previously receiving residuals that studios no longer wanted to share. Scarlett Johannson was unhappy with her residual pay when “Black Widow” moved to Disney+. And it wasn’t an isolated incident, as both SAG and WGA had residual streaming rights written into their new contracts, which helped end the strikes.

Back to the present

Now that we’ve relived the trauma of the last few years, let’s jump back to the present and look at the information released by ProdPro. While the numbers have generally been up since 2023, going back a year, we’re still down about 40% from 2022. Feature films were down 18% from last year, which was down 22% from 2022.

THE Podcasts Scriptnotes The May 2024 episode, “It’s Brutal Out Here,” details how difficult it is to produce new ideas. You can find it here. In fact, they discuss the topic often. I highly recommend the podcast to screenwriters or anyone interested in screenwriting. I love it and am a fan of it myself.

Instead of making one $200 million movie, try making 20 $10 million movies. Or 50 $4 million movies.

Cord Jefferson at the 2024 Oscars

The profession of film director

Finally, it's worth pointing out that studios have become reluctant to invest money in original content in the face of the plethora of remakes, reboots, sequels, adaptations, etc. After investing hundreds of millions of dollars in failures, it seems that something needs to change. Making a movie is now less of a creative endeavor and more of a business transaction for movie studios.

I leave you with the immortal words of the Oscar-winning screenwriter Jefferson Cord at the 2024 Oscars: I understand that this industry is risk averse. I understand that. But $200 million movies are also a risk. And it doesn't always work out, but you take the risk anyway. Instead of making one $200 million movie, try making 20 $10 million movies. Or 50 $4 million movies.

So what do you think needs to change? Studios are spending more money, so are they justified in producing fewer movies and TV shows? Leave your comments below!