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California cases remain stable despite national push

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California’s COVID-19 case curve remained stable on Thursday as the country reported its most new cases in one day since the end of July, according to data compiled by this news organization and Johns Hopkins University.

Counties in the state have reported 3,022 new cases and 71 new deaths from the virus, hardly changing the seven-day average of those two figures. Over the past week, California has averaged about 3,250 cases and 58 deaths per day.

California has been stuck at a plateau of between 3,000 and 3,600 cases per day since the second week of September, but deaths have dropped precipitously at the same time. Compared to a month ago, on September 15, California’s average daily cases fell about 5%, while its average daily deaths fell 47%.

Nationally, the average daily cases increased by about 42% during this period, while deaths decreased by about 20%. According to the COVID Tracking Project, 17 states just reported their highest weekly total of cases last week. In California, there were about 67% fewer cases last week than at its peak, when there were nearly 69,000 cases reported between July 6 and July 12, an average of nearly 10 000 per day.

The 63,000 new cases reported Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins, were the most the country has reported in a single day since July 31. California accounted for about 5% of those cases, although it represents about 12% of the national population.

The national positivity rate has climbed to 5.2%, according to Johns Hopkins, despite being as low as 4.4% as recently as September 29. In California, the positivity rate remained at 2.6%, where it has been for about two weeks.

In the Bay Area, average daily cases are down about 23% from a month ago, but just about 7% in the past two weeks. About 5.6 people per 100,000 population per day have been infected in the region over the past week, up from a statewide rate of around 8.2 and a double national rate of 16.5 per 100,000 inhabitants.

Sonoma County is an outlier in the region: its cases are on the rise and its per capita infection rate of around 15.2 per 100,000 is one of the highest in the state.

Three counties in the region reported new deaths on Thursday: four in Santa Clara, three in San Francisco and one in Contra Costa. The number of reported deaths in Alameda County also continues to fluctuate: its number has been adjusted downward by nine, at least the fourth time in the past two weeks the number of deaths reported by the county has declined. The 433 total deaths reported in Alameda County are still the largest in the Bay Area, followed by 367 in Santa Clara, 234 in Contra Costa, 155 in San Mateo and 126 in San Francisco.

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