Entertainment
Bear of the Day: Cedar Fair (FUN) – April 6, 2020
Cedar Fair (FUN – Free report) is Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) which owns five amusement parks. These include Cedar Point, Knott’s Berry Farm, Dorney Park and Wildwater Kingdom, Vallyefair and Worlds of Fun / Oceans of Fun.
The combination of poor earnings in the lock-up season makes for a recipe for disaster for this company. Although the lockdowns may last all summer, the stigma of social distancing is likely to put extreme pressure on business.
Stock drop
There are a few stocks that have ugly tickets, but FUN is one of the worst. The stock started the year around $ 55 but began to dive after a poor earnings report in February. After reaching $ 13, we saw a big drop of $ 30, but now the stock is trading at $ 16. This is a decline of over 70% already in the year.
Q4 earnings
The problems started before the conclusion was blocked when the company reported earnings in Q4. The company saw a 56 percent EPS shortfall after a major revenue shortfall. This was the fourth mistake in the last eight quarters, but this one was a big one. This caused the sale of shares that were transferred to COVID dominated the month of March.
A few weeks ago, I wrote the following about Six Flags and the same issues apply to FUN:
The company says it faces challenges related to its core business. They notice soft organic revenue trends and rising costs due to minimum and market wages. It seems like people don’t go to the parks and it becomes more expensive to run them. Two negative catalysts for this job.
As a result, the estimates are lower. For the current year, we’ve seen estimates drop from $ 3.24 to $ 1.43 over the last month. This is a 56% drop from the next year’s (when things should improve) drop of 17%.
COVID-19 and lock
Although things could be improved, the COVID lock will seal the fate of the FUN if they continue for too long. The company has a lot of debt and not much money. Long term closures in the busy summer months could really put the pressure on work.
In summary
You cannot buy that stock until we know when the economy will open. Until we get some clarity on the virus and a timeframe for when we will be able to get back to work, supplies like FUN must be avoided.
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