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Expert Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor

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welcome to Seizure of Oscar Experts, a weekly column in which the editors and experts of Gold Derby Joyce Eng and Christopher rosen discuss the Oscar race the same way you’ve communicated with your colleagues for a year: through Slack. This week, with some movement in the Best Supporting Actor category, we’re discussing the three-way race for Oscar.

Christopher Rosen: Hello again, Joyce! We’ve spent a lot of Slack time hitting on the best actresses of the season in the main and supporting categories – so now is a good time to check out male races, especially the best supporting actor. For the first time since the start of this long season, the star of “Judas and the Black Messiah” Daniel Kaluuya took a thin lead over the Gold Derby Graphics on the actor “The Chicago Trial 7” Sacha Baron Cohen and “One Night in Miami” standout Leslie Odom Jr. I can’t say I’m totally surprised: Kaluuya is on the way to being the winner on Oscar night. His performance ticks many narrative boxes: despite an obvious age disparity, Kaluuya nails the leader of the Black Panther. Fred hamptonspeeches and vocal inflections of; he’s a former candidate who already feels somehow owed to the academy’s recognition; and – in the recent tradition of Best Supporting Actor – he’s co-lead on his film, which puts him in league with past winners Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, and Christoph waltz. But what do you think, Joyce? Is Kaluuya ready to make it through the next couple of months, or will one of the other guys take the gold?

joyceeng: I must first give you props to resist the urge to mention Jared leto right off the bat, but that’s what the rest of the discussion is for. I’m also not at all shocked that Kaluuya got there first. There was a buzz about his performance and his chances of winning for literally a year, and in this case, his turn lived up to the hype. It is also the most spectacular performance not only of this trio, but of all the main contenders for the supporting actor. And yes, he’s basically a co-leader. In a race without a favorite, he can certainly sweep, and I think it depends on what the Golden Globes do next week. They could put him on the winning streak as they have done for many in recent years, but “Judas” only got two nominations, compared to three for “Miami” and five for “Chicago 7” – it doesn’t. isn’t that fewer nominations mean you’re dead in the water or that a lot of nominations mean you get one (“The Irishman” and “The Post” say hello). But the Globes do like Baron Cohen and I could see him winning for that and not for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” But what about Odom? It’s a virtual link between the three, but it went from the first to the third – although 13 experts still choose it – and you explained last month why he was the favorite. Do you still believe this or are you now a fully converted aKaluuyalyte?

Christopher rosen: Well, don’t flip-flop on something I wrote, but let me flip-flop: I’m a convert, Kaluuya ’21! But if anyone can stop her from winning an Oscar in **April** (I am highlighting the month again because, wow, there’s still plenty of time left!), I think it’s Odom. He gives the best performance in “One Night in Miami” for many of the same reasons Kaluuya is so strong: Odom does a wonderful job portraying a popular culture icon (in this case, Sam cooke), and has what amounts to a co-lead role in the film. “A Night in Miami” is also highly regarded and is expected to garner more nominations than “Judas and the Black Messiah,” which also contributes to Odom’s candidacy. But before going back to the old one Aaron Burr, let’s talk about Cohen here. In a regular year or with a less robust contender roster, I feel like he would be a slam dunk. His Abbie hoffman in “Chicago 7” is a great performance, both against its perceived type and leaning against it, and it came right before her tune-up work in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”. Moreover, of these three films, “Chicago 7” arguably has the best argument for winning the best picture award (something I have written before and still believe!). Add these factors together and Cohen seems like a natural fit for the best supporting actor. Do you think there is any chance that he actually succeeds – especially if the Globes give him a shot as you suggest? Or are we both tilting windmills and missing the real favorite being our buddy, Jared. We live in a society, after all …

joyceeng: We live in a society – a society in which Borat could win an Oscar, but not for playing Borat. Or maybe it’s partially. It would be ostensibly for “Chicago 7”, but we’ve seen people win before after having had a great year with several films (see: Vikander, Alicia). “Borat” will forever have a place in American political history, and he’s been nominated for that before, in adapted screenplay, a nomination he could get again. I also think SBC is loved / admired and it really helps that no other guy from “Chicago” has emerged as a possible candidate. I think Mark Rylance could show up at BAFTA, and sure, we might get a surprise that morning, but so far all ‘Chicago’ (heh) hopes in acting have been on him. To be honest I would give SBC an Oscar for its amazing Mark Zuckerberg burn at last year’s Golden Globes, I watched a few more times than I would like to admit. (A) luckily I don’t think our buddy Jared will win if he succeeds. But will he succeed? He can easily be the classic Globe and SAG nominee that’s snubbed, but I also feel like a lot of people turn him down because they don’t want him. We both have it. Are we the smartest here or are we, so as not to mix up the Jokers, just agents of chaos?

Christopher Rosen: Well, Joyce, some experts just want to watch the world burn.

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