Could Climate-Conscious Buyers Kill Fast Fashion? Quartz

While shoppers today worry about climate change and think it’s cool to care about the planet, fast fashion could be in jeopardy.

Chains like H&M, Zara and Asos have enjoyed tremendous success producing huge volumes of low-cost clothing, but this model is also at the heart of their environmental concerns. Producing the increasing volume of clothing sold around the world each year consumes huge amounts of resources, pollutes waterways with dyes and chemicals, and emits large quantities greenhouse gases.

For now, shoppers continue to buy inexpensive clothing, and many who say they still want durable products make purchasing decisions based on the price. But UBS investment bank believes that a consumer reaction could loom on the horizon.

In the case of fast fashion, we believe it is possible that changes in consumer behavior along the lines of stealing shame or plastic avoidance will eventually crystallize as environmental and social impacts. negatives are becoming more widely recognized, the company said in a new research note to customers. He envisions different scenarios where the sales of cheap, high-volume clothing could drop 10% to 30% over the next five to ten years.

UBS stressed that this was not its baseline forecast for fashion, and comes with a big caveat: The company does not yet have evidence that sustainability considerations push buyers to buy less. But he said he has seen customer attitudes change rapidly in other industries, with knock-on effects for businesses. In the United States, for example, sales of high-calorie sodas dropped over a period of 20 years as the health risks of sugar became public and the government took action.

Will the fast fashion go for high calorie sodas?

UBS imagined four different situations that could disrupt fast fashion. In the most drastic case, a widespread change in consumer attitudes towards clothing, comprehensive government regulation, and changes in the way fast fashion companies produce clothing themselves would accelerate change in the industry, resulting in a 30% drop in unit sales of valuable clothing in about five years.

This version of events, however, would require big changes in behavior. At present, there is little government oversight of the fashion supply chain, and little indication that the companies themselves will sacrifice sales for sustainability.

The scenario at the other end of the spectrum would involve a slower change in consumer attitudes, incremental measures by companies to reduce the clothing they produce, and limited regulation by authorities. Under this model, UBS predicts that unit sales of fast fashion could decline another 10% in 10 years. The other scenarios fall between these opposing visions.

Either way, companies that focus on sustainability, like H&M has done, can gain market share in the short term, he said.

The likelihood of any of these occurring is difficult to assess. While clothing consumption has stabilized in the mature US market, it is growing globally with thriving middle classes in emerging economies like China and India.

Companies are implementing programs to reduce their impact, such as sourcing more sustainable raw materials or starting recycling programs. But UBS and many experts agree that these efforts usually don’t outweigh the volume of products they make.

Many buyers are unaware of the impact of fast modes in the meantime. UBS surveyed 3,000 consumers in the US, UK and Germany. It found that 58% of respondents said they did not know the environmental impact of fast modes.

On the other hand, 54% said they personally knew someone who had changed their buying behavior due to sustainability issues. (He asked about other people’s behavior so that respondents were more likely to give an honest answer, rather than providing the most socially acceptable one.)