As of this writing in mid-June, Chinese strongman Xi Jinping () appears to be starting over, pressuring and intimidating Taiwan both rhetorically and militarily. Chinese warplanes have flown over Taiwan in an openly threatening manner, rhetoric in state media has been shrill and threatening, and in general, the one-party dictatorship on the mainland has shown its fear and aversion to peace. democratic republic 90 miles east of the People’s Republic. This at a time when the economy on the mainland continues to be in a slump linked to global economic decline, although there is little concrete evidence that the Xi regime itself is in danger.
President Tsai () reacted with her usual calm, trying not to further exacerbate tensions between the two shores while continuing to manage the islands’ economic recovery after the recent global downturn. With three more years in his second term, there is little political pressure on the leader of the islands at the national level. Unlike the dictatorial Xi, Madame Tsai will resign when her term limit is reached, and a new democratically elected leader will undoubtedly replace her in 2024.
On the contrary, Xis’ rogue actions and rhetoric towards the island republic only further strengthen the position of the Tsai administration, even though the Covid cases remain a source of concern there. Although this is early in the game, I can easily predict that another DPP candidate will successfully emerge to replace Madame Tsais in the next presidential poll in 2024. The once powerful KMT appears fractured, with no obvious flag bearer at- beyond Ma Ying-jeou () to lead the party in the years to come. Eric Chu () impressed me when I was still working in Taiwan, but it is difficult to determine where his political fortunes lie within his party these days. Smaller parties like the People First Party could play a disproportionate role in future elections if the two main parties fail to secure a dominant majority in legislative and presidential elections.
On the surface, Xi appears to be in a comfortable position. He has eliminated term limits and appears to want to either reign indefinitely in the style of his role model, Mao Tse-tung (), or perhaps return to a role behind the curtains if he decides in time to allow one. of his underlings to assume the titular leader of the party and the government on the road. None of this is in keeping with the generally pro-democracy trend in East Asia that has swept away authoritarian regimes in places as diverse as South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia.
Most experts continue to doubt that China has the ability to successfully launch a maritime assault on the island through ninety miles of open water, although it can rain missiles on military installations. of the island, or even on population centers, if it so wishes. This reckless option would most likely drag the United States into the fray and, at a minimum, further exclude Beijing from the increasingly democratic circle of open societies that surrounds China itself.
Nothing I have written here suggests that I am completely optimistic about the relationship between the two shores. Emperor Xi continues to insist on reunification, forced if necessary, as his lasting legacy, however risky it may seem to the rest of the world. The Biden administration reiterated the Americas long-held position that, barring a peaceful and mutually acceptable solution to cross-strait disputes, the United States is ready to assist Taiwan in any way necessary to enable it to repel any military threat to the de facto independent existence of the islands.
This position has been endorsed by all major politicians in Washington, one of the few areas where Democrats and Republicans agree. A very strong majority in Congress has shown in word and deed that it remains committed to Taiwan’s sovereignty and is ready to act both rhetorically and in practical terms to defend Taiwan’s place in the world.
I will end here with some speculation about where this is going. It seems entirely possible to me that Xis’ dangerous overtaking could result in his being sidelined by his own cohorts, who cannot rejoice in his desire to rule indefinitely and thus deprive one of them of the possibility. to aspire to the highest office in Beijing. His stated intention to rule indefinitely may not please those who put him in power nearly a decade ago, assuming that over time they too could make progress at some point. The relative slowdown in the Chinese economy, although the PRC’s statistics are to be swallowed with a grain of salt, cannot help Emperor Xis’ ambitions.
The worst-case scenario would be a sudden and aggressive decision by Xi to threaten or attack Taiwan, perhaps starting with the vulnerable offshore islands, as well as a missile attack on the island itself. Xi must count on a swift and energetic response from the United States, given our long-standing commitments to the island. Japan, Vietnam, ASEAN and other neighbors are also said to be likely to react strongly to any sudden moves from Beijing.
The prudent step for Beijing now would be to reduce tensions and seek common ground with its island neighbor. After all, their economies are more and more intertwined and no one would benefit from heightened tensions or worse in the volatile region across the strait. Hopefully wisdom wins and things calm down soon. Because the alternative is frightening for all parties involved.
Ambassador Stephen M. Young (retired) lived in Kaohsiung as a child over 50 years ago and served four times at AIT: as a young consular officer (1981-82), in as a language student (1989-90), as deputy director (1998-2001) and as director (2006-9). He often visits and writes regularly on Taiwan issues. Young also served as U.S. Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and Consul General in Hong Kong during his 33-year career as a Foreign Service Officer. He holds a BA from Wesleyan University and a PhD from the University of Chicago.
Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Comments containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. The final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times.
What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online
LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos
to request, modification Contact us at Here or [email protected]