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United States vs. China

 


The title accompanying this column is a pretty dramatic way of putting it, but the reality is that China aspires to meet and surpass the United States economically, technologically and militarily, to become the putative leader of the world. Can they? Having been a “China Watcher” for many years and having traveled to China many times, allow me to share some thoughts on this contest – US vs. China.

As Americans, unless we collectively pull ourselves together and end our partisan bickering my way or the highway, many of us will soon be dismayed, even stunned, when China overtakes us on the road. ‘one or all of these fronts. China’s GDP is on track to overtake that of the United States in six to seven years, according to the Bank of America. China now has the world’s largest navy, although it still lags the United States in structural strength with fewer aircraft carriers, cruisers and submarines. China has stunned the rest of the world by already placing a rover on Mars and launching its own space station, now planning to partner with Russia in space exploration. The strong man and strong-minded leader of China, Xi Jinping, has promised his people that China will focus its future development on businesses with less cheap labor and more on low-cost businesses. higher value like aerospace, robotics, advanced information technology, semiconductors), bioengineering and other entrepreneurial innovations, and it has the capital reserves to be aggressive with these plans.

According to the World Bank, China’s GDP per capita is now around $ 10,500 compared to a world average of $ 10,925. China currently accounts for nearly 50% of all world exports. Xi Jinping recently said in a speech celebrating 100 years of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that China’s goal is to end “a century of humiliation”. Trying to win the favor of other nations, China has made billions of dollars in loans, especially to developing countries, for the development of its infrastructure: roads, railways, dams, information technology and airports. . For some of those countries under duress, especially because of the effects of the pandemic, it has provided more than $ 2.1 billion in debt relief. Two billion is not a huge sum given the scale of foreign direct investment, but it pays disproportionate dividends in terms of foreign policy and economic diplomacy.

That being said, despite China’s incredible development from one of the poorest nations in the world to middle-income country status within decades, Xi Jinping’s China faces serious problems and the match for supremacy is therefore far from over.

The CCP is an absolute authoritarian leader, and President Xi is the absolute leader of the CCP. He has established himself to be a ruler for life, unless he is hoisted by his own firecracker due to political failures in addressing China’s outstanding issues.

The biggest of these problems is China’s aging population of over 1.2 billion people. Hmm, how do you pay for all these pensions when young Chinese people seem less interested in having children. China’s birth rate has fallen from about 6% in 1960 to about 1.2% in 2020. This problem is also manifested in the dwindling resources of labor for mass manufacturing, which has brought China to middle class income status; hence President Xi’s interest in shipping cheap labor from China to countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh and India and shifting to better business ventures like research, state investments in the production of things like renewable energy platforms, semiconductors, bioengineered robotics, and artificial intelligence.

The problem for Xi Jinping is that making these kinds of changes requires fewer state-run industries, more entrepreneurial freedoms, less control over information, and more allegiance to international law, trade, trade and intellectual property rules. But more laissez-faire business practices and commitments to international rules and laws will undermine the power and influence of the Chinese Communist Party.

China has seen many failures on the way to recent successes. Mao’s Cultural Revolution was a disaster. Attempts to grow the economy through municipalities and the “Great Leap Forward Movement” have also been a disaster of Biblical proportions with an estimated 45 million deaths. The struggle for modernization and a more responsive leadership of the Communist Party culminated in the Tiananmen incident which left thousands dead. Even today, President Xi has had to implement strict social controls and discipline using extralegal detentions, cyber surveillance and CCP purges to maintain loyalty to his program and to stem the growing disparity and dissatisfaction. between the richest segments of society and the poorest classes.

The bottom line is that the growth of the world economy and market today requires some liberalization, which is anathema to the Chinese Communist Party.

There are, of course, many other forces at work for and against China’s ambitions. To name but a few: How to feed 1.2 billion people, the deleterious effects of climate change for a country still mired in fossil fuels, Hong Kong and Taiwan; The Law of the Sea and the South China Sea, and how to prevent the free flow of information from seeping through China’s Iron Information Curtain.

The New York Times is currently publishing an essay series under the theme “The Great American Languishing”. It begins with: “The United States was once a land of spectacular inventions and dynamic change, but today our policies are sclerotic, our culture is in crisis and our dreams are small. What happened?”

Daniel Immerwahr, professor of history at Northwestern University, argues that the United States has lost the dynamism and growth spirit of the 1800s, instead diagnosing America as a nation of hardened political arteries, squeezed between determined politicians. to “just hang on to power and those seeking modest adjustments.”

As the future competition between China and the United States unfolds, the two countries face challenges. Immerwahr suggests that “a painful fact about the history of the United States is that it often takes military conflict to transcend the usual pattern of maintaining a government of checks and balances. It is time for the United States and its leadership to think big, as we did to emerge from the Depression and the postwar years. It’s in our DNA if we can just overcome empty, arrogant partisan bickering.

From my perspective, China’s biggest problem is Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. In my opinion, they are problematic and outdated. My bet is on America because I know what we are capable of, but we would be wrong not to believe that we are facing stiff competition. In the lingo of the sports world, it’s best to dress, bow, and mentally focus on the competition.

Bill Sims is a Hillsboro resident, retired chairman of the Denver Council on Foreign Relations, author, and runs a small farm in Berrysville with his wife. He is a former educator, executive and founding president.

Columnist with Bill Sims

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.timesgazette.com/opinion/58151/the-united-states-vs-china

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