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Opportunities of US-China Struggle, Economist Says




Chinese authorities have encouraged the use of the yuan around the world, while the US dollar dominates global transactions.

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BEIJING Regarding investment prospects, a Chinese economist predicts once-in-a-century opportunities will emerge from a “struggle for supremacy” between the United States and China.

This game-changing window comes from upheaval on both sides, said Liu Yuhui, director of a financial research department at a government think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

China is on the cusp of becoming a great nation, he said, while the United States has embarked on a policy of dollar printing since the coronavirus pandemic that shifted the financial balance.

This is according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin speech, titled “The Bipolar World Under US Dollar Super-Expansion Cycle The ‘Cognitive Revolution’ of China’s Capital Market.”

Liu, also chief economist at Tianfeng Securities, was speaking at asset manager ChinaAMC’s investment strategy conference on Friday. Founded in 1998, ChinaAMC is one of the largest mutual fund managers in the country and manages 1.54 trillion yuan ($ 240.63 billion) in assets under management.

According to Liu, the United States is implementing the concept of “modern monetary theory (MMT), according to which governments with their own hard currencies can print money to support the national economy without worrying too much about budget deficits.”

One of the best-known proponents of modern monetary theory is Stephanie Kelton, formerly the Democrats ‘chief economist on the U.S. Senate Budget Committee and senior economic adviser to Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign.

The United States, under the Trump administration and then the Biden administration, kept interest rates low and released billions of dollars into the economy to support growth in the wake of the pandemic.

The stimulus package has drawn criticism for its scale. At the Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate’s annual meeting in May, Charlie Munger, longtime business partner of US billionaire Warren Buffett, said modern monetary theory might be “more achievable than everyone thought. But I know that if you keep doing it without any limits, it will end in disaster. “

Learn more about China from CNBC Pro

Meanwhile, in China, the ruling Chinese Communist Party just celebrated its 100th anniversary on July 1, when President Xi Jinping again called for China’s “great rejuvenation”.

For Liu, the government’s position means that the policy will focus on ensuring national security and reducing carbon emissions. He stressed that political correctness will be even more critical for investments in light of developments such as the controversial speech by Alibaba founder Jack Ma last fall and the subsequent suspension of Ant’s IPO. Group.

Mainland Chinese stocks with the highest probability of big gains will be those in the new energy, seeds, optics and semiconductors sectors, among others, Liu said.

As for digital currencies, against which the Chinese authorities have stepped up their crackdown this year, Liu also presented them in geopolitical terms.

“In my opinion,” he said, “it’s just the way the United States tempt Chinese capital.”




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