With Turkish inflation close to 20 percent, with 27 percent of the population unable to pay for necessities, the central bank has warned that it plans to cut interest rates.
The Turkish Lira dipped to 10.10 per euro on commentary, and is currently trading near 10 per euro. The lira lira has fallen 1.5% against the dollar and is trading around 8.45 at the time of writing. The USD / TRY record is 8.53.
Turkey’s central bank governor Sahap Kavcioglu told investors consumer prices are expected to fall in the coming months and the bank will now use “core” inflation – which is below 17% after excluded volatile items such as food and fuel – in future decisions.
Timothy Ash, analyst at BlueBay Asset Management in London, said Kavcioglus’ comments showed his promise to keep real interest rates positive meant nothing from a market perspective.
He’s obviously determined not to raise rates if he can get away with it in any way, and he will drop as soon as possible, he said in an email to clients.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is of course behind the announcement, as he recently made several remarks on “how low interest rates help reduce inflation”.
Erdoan faces re-election in 2023, saw his job approval rating drop during the Covid-19 pandemic, which has caused mass unemployment. He sees economic growth, regardless of the cost in economic well-being for the entire population, making it popular again.
Turkey’s central bank has repeatedly pledged to keep interest rates above the headline inflation rate, because currently interest rates are indeed negative. But using core inflation as the basis for interest rate decisions simply leaves out the things that fuel inflation in Turkey – food, above all, for which prices are at record highs, just like oil.
The central bank will then meet on interest rates on September 23.
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