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Most Republicans want Trump as GOP leader, but are divided over whether he would help them take over the White House




Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say, 63% to 37%, that Trump should be the leader of the Republican Party. But they are roughly evenly split on whether the return of the defeated former president on the ticket in 2024 would be a benefit: 51% say Republicans have a better chance of taking over the presidency if Trump is the candidate. , with 49% saying the party would. be better with another candidate. It’s a very different landscape from 2019, when more than three-quarters of Republicans said their party had a better chance in 2020 with Trump as a candidate than with a different candidate.

Support for Trump is not evenly distributed across the party: 69% of Republicans without a college degree think Trump should lead the party, compared to 49% of those with a college degree. A 72% majority of conservatives say Trump should lead the party, compared to 49% among the party’s smallest block of moderates. And 71% of self-identified Republicans want Trump to lead the party, compared to 51% of Republican-leaning independents who say the same thing.

Most Republicans also view support for Trump – and his false declaration of winning the 2020 election – as an important part of their own partisan identity alongside support for conservative principles. About six in ten say supporting Trump and believing he won in 2020 is at least a fairly important part of what being a Republican means to them. More, however, point to more traditional partisan markers, with 69% saying it is at least important enough to oppose Democratic policies, 81% to support Republicans in Congress, 85% to defend values ​​and positions. conservative and 86% to believe the federal government should have less power.

Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents are most likely to tie their identity as Democrats to support for progressive policies and increased government aid, according to the most recent poll. Perhaps reflecting their status as the current ruling party, they are less likely than Republicans to emphasize opposition to the other party: 58% say as Democrats it is at least quite important to oppose GOP policies, 77% to support Biden, 81% to support Democrats in Congress, 84% to take progressive positions, and 93% to believe the federal government should do more to help people.

On the Democratic side, the most marked divisions are at the level of generations and races. Democrats and independents over 45 with a Democratic lean, for example, are 28 percentage points more likely than their younger counterparts to view Biden’s support as very important, and 22 points more likely to say support for Biden. Democrats in Congress is very important. Black Democrats are 14 points more than White Democrats in saying supporting Biden is very important. And Democrats of Color are 12 points more than White Democrats in saying it’s very important that the federal government do more to help people.

Liberal Democrats are more likely than moderates to place a high priority on implementing progressive policies (by 32 points), opposing the GOP (14 points), favoring an expanded role for the federal government ( 14 points) and supporting the Congressional Democrats (12 points), but show much less disagreement on the importance of standing behind Biden (3 points).

Democrats and Republicans are currently happy with the ideological positions their own parties are defending. The vast majority of Republicans, 86%, call the GOP mainstream; on the other hand, 92% of Democrats see their party as dominant and 96% say the same about Biden.

Americans are widely divided in their views on the Republican Party, with 51% calling it too extreme and 49% saying it is generally mainstream. They say, 54% to 45%, that the Democratic Party is generally dominant. Only 14% of Americans consider both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party to be too extreme. 31% say only Democrats are too extreme, 37% say only Republicans are, and 17% see both parties as generally dominant. Biden is seen as more mainstream than his party as a whole: 61% say he’s generally mainstream, compared to 39% who say he’s too extreme.

Between 2010 and 2013, the share of the public who called Democrats too extreme in CNN / ORC polls was around four in 10, while the share who said the same about the GOP generally increased in the past. during this period to reach a high of 56%.

Midterms 2022 and Congress

Ahead of next year’s congressional election, poll finds early preferences over a generic ballot are roughly evenly split, with 45% of registered voters saying they would vote for the Democratic Party candidate. and 44% that they would vote Republican. Party candidate.

Overall, 28% of voters say they are extremely excited to vote for Congress next year, more than the 18% who reported similar enthusiasm in September 2017, a year before the last election in mid -mandate.

Republican-leaning voters are slightly more excited to vote in next year’s contest than Democratic-leaning voters (30% on the Republican side, 26% on the Democratic side), and within both parties, those with the strongest ideological tendencies are the most enthusiastic (38% of very liberal Democratic voters and 44% of very conservative Republican voters declare themselves extremely enthusiastic).

But where Democrats are generally happy with their current leadership in Congress, Republicans – especially those with weak ties to the party – are less satisfied. Most self-identified Republicans, 58%, approve of their party’s congressional leadership. But among independents who lean towards the Republican Party, that number drops sharply to 29%. In contrast, 83% of Democrats approve of their party’s Congressional leadership, as do 69% of Democratic-leaning independents.

Overall, Americans disapprove of the Democratic leaders in Congress by a 10 percentage point margin, 55% to 45%, and disapprove of the Republican leaders by a wider 38 points, 69% to 31%. That’s a change from 2019, when CNN polls revealed congressional leaders from both parties had similarly low ratings.

The new CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from August 3 to September 7 online and by phone with a random sample of 2,119 adults recruited from an address-based sample.




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