Reviews | When Biden and Chinese Xi meet, leverage will be everything

As an American diplomat managing our relations with China, I have often been asked: What is our influence on China? Beijing was always doing something we didn’t like buying oil from Iran, building a port in Cambodia, locking up dissidents, or not doing something we thought we had to, like impose sanctions on North Korea or by opening its market to American agricultural products.

We were constantly thinking about what sticks or carrots we could deploy to change China’s behavior. There were no easy answers; the frustrations over our insufficient leverage and our inability to change China have been around for a long time. But the growing power of China compounds the problem. And in this era of great power competition, the need to accumulate and use leverage to influence Chinese stocks has never been greater.

President Biden himself has admitted that influence over China is lacking. Soon he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. So where will the required American leverage come from?

It doesn’t help that the Chinese leadership sensed weakness on the US front. Successfully combating Covid-19 and reviving the US economy will help counter those impressions and improve Mr. Bidens’ hand. Yet that is not enough to give Washington the necessary edge over Beijing.

The Biden administration’s main approach to confronting China has been to recruit other countries to join it in the fight against Beijing on all kinds of issues, from human rights to technology to Taiwan. But the difficulty of establishing clear priorities could ultimately be undone by Mr Bidens.

If everything is a priority, then nothing is and the leverage dissipates into an ever-changing list of pressing issues.

President Donald Trump has focused on the trade deficit. While this wisdom can be debated, he has a deal to work out in less than two years. This is because the Chinese saw that solving this specific problem could stabilize the relationship.

When it comes to dealing with China, Mr Biden should take note. Prioritize issues on which the United States can make realistic progress with China: trade and investment, climate change measures, and limits on dangerous weapons.

We need new trade rules governing subsidies and technology, and rules to stop the spread and limit the use of autonomous weapons. The Biden administration is also expected to aim to achieve concrete changes in global energy, construction and transportation systems to tackle climate change.

To get the necessary leverage, we need to give China the prospect of a beneficial outcome that Beijing believes could start by developing what it would see as a more respectful partnership. US officials often speak of increasing pressure on China, but the sanctions and tariffs have generally not produced a Chinese political movement. What has generated movement is the prospect of a more stable and constructive relationship with the United States, a likely driver of Mr. Trump’s interim trade deal. Currently, the Chinese do not see this on the table.

Instead, the Biden administration has targeted everything, from Chinese infrastructure projects in other countries for Chinese scientists in the United States as if everything China does or manufactures is a potential Trojan horse sneaking inside the American fortress.

This approach not only misses the mark of the signing of the Biden administration to assess foreign policy priorities based on the benefits they bring to the American people. It also allows Beijing to dismiss our concerns as politicized. This risks leaving us empty-handed on issues where the influence of negotiation matters most. If the list of transgressions is unlimited or if there is no prospect of improvement, Beijing has no incentive to engage or change its behavior.

Confronting China on a whole host of issues also makes it harder for others to align with our approach. Mr. Biden says he wants working with our allies to shape Chinese behavior. But in pushing for a vague counter-China effort, the administration ignored the fact that U.S. allies have their own priorities. Some won’t raise human rights, others won’t shy away from Chinese technology or join an anti-Chinese security bloc. Some do not want to sever commercial ties or dispute the origin of the new coronavirus.

To take advantage of joint leverage, Mr Biden must recognize and give due weight to the concerns of the allies and get a genuine, not half-baked deal on the agenda with them first. It takes time, hard work and compromise.

With targeted joint pressure and the promise of a constructive US approach, China will move. But he also recently clarified that he sees no point in committing if the United States insists on a zero-sum relationship. And the White House message doesn’t leave much room for optimism.

The Biden administration said the the era of engagement with China is over that he seeks to prevail in strategic competition. Administration builds coalitions to deter and militarily contain China and problems are common public criticism of Chinese stocks. So unless something changes and more compelling incentives appear, I don’t expect China to change its behavior.

Of course, it must be said that even with all the levers in the world, there will always be areas of disagreement with China. His human rights protections are catastrophic, and the abusive treatment of its own citizens, in particular minorities and dissidents. Likewise, questions of sovereignty, ie Taiwan, are national touchstones; these are likely to continue to be a source of friction in US-China relations.

Mr Biden should, of course, continue to speak out against human rights abuses or Chinese pressure on Taiwan, but we must recognize that our ability to move China forward on these issues is negligible.

That is why Mr Biden must not waste the leverage that the United States can achieve. Setting clear priorities and ensuring that China knows that progress will lead to a constructive relationship is a necessary starting point.