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Erdogan feasts on the chaos while the lira suffers

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In this environment, can capital controls be far away? Either that or another zigzag might be in sight, at least in terms of economic policy. Although analysts expected some interest rate cut after a recent central bank policy committee purge, the cut was much larger than expected. Consumer prices jumped 19.6% in September from the previous year; the benchmark rate is now 16%. In many consequence economies, accommodation is being removed, not expanded. Swimming against the tide may delight Erdogan, but it also comes at a price. Erdogan is not necessarily convinced by this position. Late last year, unhappy with inflation and anxious to prop up a sluggish currency, the president installed a central bank governor who aggressively raised rates until he went too far and be made redundant in the middle of the night. His successor, Sahap Kavcioglu, took a long time to undo this hard work, but seems to have got the message. His choice may have come down to protecting his career or reading it. If the events of last week proved anything, it’s that the latter would take the fall. Next month, who knows?

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