Britain to become Qatar of hydrogen, says British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said as the government has indicated its 368-page strategy to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. It sounds wonderful, but what does it mean in practice?
To achieve its net zero targets, the UK must convert from an economy powered by 80% fossil fuels and 20% electricity to an economy of 80% electricity and 20% green hydrogen (produced from renewable energy) over the coming decades .
Replace fossil fuels
Hydrogen is needed to replace fossil fuels to power industrial sectors such as steel, as well as refueling of heavy transport. Importantly, there is also a need to replace the huge volumes of gray hydrogen made from natural gas that are currently used in the manufacture of fuels and fertilizers.
In addition, hydrogen has a role to play in heating. All we hear about is the need to install heat pumps, although they are unlikely to be suitable for apartments and many other types of houses. The only efficient way to heat such buildings is to use a central heat source, which is unlikely to be a heat pump.
The alternative is to convert the natural gas network to hydrogen to feed cogeneration plants like them Are growing in Japan. The British government is experimenting with a hydrogen village test, but will not rule on the role of hydrogen in heating until 2026.
Whatever the government’s decision on heating, the country will still need a lot of hydrogen. Make green hydrogen in the UK will require a huge amount of electrical power. And this is in addition to the fact that the switch to 80% of the country to electricity is already going to require a lot more electricity, perhaps two to three times more than what is currently produced.
Even the network as it is still has to be considerably carbon-free. On average, some 40% of the UK’s electricity is produced from natural gas and some coal. When wind power fell in September, that dependency increased. Until the UK grid is carbon-free, any green hydrogen produced will only be 60% green and so will everything else from electric cars to electricity entering homes.
The UK must therefore ensure that enough solar, wind and nuclear power is produced to offset the need for electricity from fossil fuels. The UK intends to develop more generation capacity in the form of offshore wind and solar power, but the planning system is unlikely to approve production over the large land and sea areas needed to cover the whole transition.
Nuclear power is an answer, but it is expensive enough that the government has yet to find a way to attract many global investors. Seven nuclear power plants supply around 7% of the UK’s energy needs, with two slated to close in 2022 and just one new one at Hinkley Point in Somerset. This helps to explain why the UK intends to more than triple the amount of electricity it can import from other countries via interconnections by 2030.
For the renewable energy it produces, the UK will also need a large amount of long-lasting storage energy during times when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. It will not be lithium-ion batteries, because their storage times are not long enough, but, for example, iron flux batteries Where nuclear heat accumulators. The government is doing 68 million available for two energy storage demonstrations, although the UK is far behind the US on this point. American companies are already sells these systems.
Hydrogen dominance
The UK could yet become a leader in converting industrial processes such as steelmaking and home heating to hydrogen. But the reality is that much of the energy needed to produce green hydrogen will come from abroad. In addition, most of the green hydrogen will probably also come from abroad.
When it comes to producing cheap electricity and cheap green hydrogen, neither the UK nor other European countries will be able to compete with Saudi Arabia and countries in Africa. from the North like Morocco. These countries can exploit considerably more renewable energy thanks to the trade winds of the Atlantic which blow on their coasts (North Africa) and have much higher levels of sunshine (all these countries).
Already Saudi Arabia is working on a plan to produce very low cost electricity from the sun by converting it first to hydrogen and then ammonia to be shipped to countries like the UK, where it will be converted back to hydrogen.
Morocco already has a huge amount of solar energy, wind and battery storage. He is now working on using some of it to produce hydrogen to ship to Europe. During this time there is a map for an interconnection from Morocco to the United Kingdom, the cable laying of which should begin in 2025.
Other North African countries have great potential for similar reasons: they have large desert areas, have nearly three times the incidence of sunlight in Europe, and have no problems with building permits or agricultural land occupied by solar panels. The prices of solar and wind power in the UK are indeed dropping rapidly, but they will not be able to compete with these countries in the long run.
Thus, the United Kingdom can still succeed in its ambition to become Global Britain, but it’s likely to rely heavily on U.S. battery technology and Saudi and North African hydrogen and clean energy. The only way to avoid increasing the UK’s energy dependence on other countries would come at enormous cost to consumers. It’s one thing to come up with catchy slogans about becoming a global hydrogen force, but the reality will be somewhat different.
Brian Scott Quinn is Emeritus Professor of Finance, ICMA Center, University of Reading.
This article first appeared on The conversation.
