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Where is Xi’s China headed?

 


Their country, home to one of the world’s largest and oldest civilizations, long a leader in science and technology, has been largely isolated from the great wave of military and technological progress that began in West in the 16th century. It was late for the powerful economic gains that began with the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. It was dominated by outside powers during the 19th century.

And for the past century, when the parents and grandparents of this Chinese couple were alive, China suffered from the collapse of the Qing Dynasty, civil wars, brutal occupation by Japan, a protracted battle between the forces of Chiang Kai Shek and Mao Zedong.

Mao won this struggle, but then plunged the country into 30 years of very charged revolutionary experiences, from the Great Leap Forward to the Cultural Revolution, all of which failed.

By the end of the 1970s, China was an exhausted, impoverished, isolated country with a revolutionary regime whose cause of Red China had lost all global relevance. The parents of this Chinese couple were among the poorest people in the world, with the fewest options.

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Then came Deng Xiaoping, the leader of the Communist Party who guided China from the late 1970s to the 1990s, and his policies that opened China to the markets and to the world.

They have resulted not only in peace and stability, but also in what economist Jeffrey Sachs has called “the most successful development story in the history of the world”. For four decades, the Chinese economy grew by almost 10% per year. And the GDP per capita has been multiplied by more than 25.

With this economic progress came the creation of a new Chinese society, more open, more ambitious and confident of its place in the world.

It is only natural that the Chinese have great pride and satisfaction which can sometimes turn into overconfidence and arrogance. And when they hear the criticisms of their country in the West, they may well wonder if foreigners are not just mad at a China that has so quickly risen through the ranks of nations, if America in particular wants to keep it. China in its place, so speak.

It’s a good question. It has always been difficult for the existing superpower to find space for an emerging superpower.

But it is surely made much more difficult by the third Chinese revolution: the changes which were made by its now supreme leader, President Xi Jinping.

Xi has pushed China towards greater repression at home, with a smaller role for free markets and a stronger emphasis on communist ideology in all areas. He also pursued a more aggressive policy abroad.

The architect of China’s openness, Deng Xiaoping, spoke of the need for China to hide its strength and bide its time. But it wasn’t just advice to wait a few decades. Deng understood that China was so big, bordering so many countries with so many border disputes, that it needed to reassure the world.

Winston Churchill once said that Russia was “an enigma shrouded in mystery within an enigma”. China, on the other hand, is a cornucopia, a vast territory teeming with contradictions. Say anything about China, and you can find it in there with its opposite.

Will Xi be able to control this sprawling country and force it to follow the lines he wants?

So far he has been successful at home. But in doing so, he makes the life of this average Chinese couple less open and their country less admired. Xi has changed China, but in a way that makes his rise on the world stage far more dangerous.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/20/opinions/fareed-chinas-iron-fist-column/index.html

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