Austin Bay: What tasks does Xi have for the Chinese military?

Another round of imperial armed intimidation in the South China Sea may be in the offing. In this tense sea, the artificial islands of China and the illegal maritime claims, supported by its armed forces, have literally stolen territory from neighboring nations.

China’s land border affects 14 sovereign countries: Vietnam, Laos, Burma, Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Russia and North Korea. China has territorial, political and ethnocultural conflicts with many of these nations.

Consider India. Since the invasion of Tibet by China in 1950, India and China have had difficult security relations. The two nuclear powers share a border of 3,500 kilometers and there are several border disputes. For the past six weeks, the Indian media has reported that Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed along what is called the actual line of control that crosses the Himalayas. During two skirmishes, soldiers were injured, one in the Ladakh region of India and the other in the Naku La pass in Sikkim. India and China are constantly bickering over Ladakh and the Doklam Plateau. However, the Indian media have released satellite photos which they claim prove that several thousand Chinese soldiers occupied Indian territory in the Galwan River valley. The South China Morning Post reported that Indian sources considered Galwan and Naku La to be new disputes.

Remember the Sino-Indian War of 1962. China acclimatized an assault force, preparing the infantry for high altitude operations, then led a rapid offensive that punished the Indian army. India remembers. The decor is now ready for a larger war. India can ban China’s shipping line from Africa and southwest Asia. China has expanded its navy and acquired bases in the Indian Ocean, including a seaport in Pakistan.

Vietnam could be a task with a maritime dimension. China has seized Vietnamese areas in the South China Sea. The United States and China are already competing in the South China Sea, and China has also argued with the Philippines. Beijing’s belligerence stimulates closer American-Vietnamese cooperation. Asia has known millennia of Chinese imperialism. Hanoi at least knows with the Americans that you get rock’n’roll.

But Vietnam is much more than a sea quarrel. In 1979, China and Vietnam waged a brief but bloody border war. Chinese forces have performed poorly. Vietnam inflicted very heavy casualties on the PLA invasion. China remembers, with embarrassment. The APL is now a modernized force.

Taiwan has been on the task list since 1949, but recent elections indicating that Taiwan prefers total independence have triggered threats from communists to attack the island and “reclaim the lost province.” For this, the Chinese generals need air superiority over the Taiwan Strait. They build air forces and missiles with that in mind. They also buy amphibious warships to move assault troops across the Taiwan Strait. However, Tiananmen Square and China’s failure to honor its promises to protect Hong Kong’s freedoms have strengthened Taiwan’s backbone.

Xi also told the PAP to prepare. Consider the PAP as an army responsible for internal repression and ensuring the control of the Communist Party. Subduing and oppressing ethnic Uighurs in the Chinese province of western Xinjiang is a common task of the PAP. Landlocked Kazakhstan and Mongolia are dismayed, but there is little they can do.

In the fall of 2019, elements of two PAP divisions deployed their armored cars and armored personnel carriers along the Hong Kong border. It is a frightening thought, but Xi could instruct the PAP and the PLA to arrest, beat and perhaps kill pro-democracy Hong Kong citizens who refuse to bow to Communist dictators in Beijing.

Austin Bay is a syndicated columnist and author.

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