Turkey reopens economy with new daily COVID-19 cases

ISTANBUL – Turkey reopened its economy on Monday, with many restaurants and cafes in operation. The government recently reported fewer than 1,000 new cases of coronavirus per day, up from around 5,000 per day in early April.

A restaurant in the heart of Istanbul’s business district illustrates the reopening. Monday morning, he struggled to organize socially distant headquarters and provide customers with disinfectant to comply with last-minute government regulations. The new seating arrangements mean that coffee can only serve half the number of customers as before.

Ercument Arslan, who runs the restaurant, said: “I hope that as the number of daily cases slows, the government will allow us to work at full capacity in a month and customers will fill the tables again from here. July”.

The government announced the opening of hair salons and shopping centers on May 11 as the first phase of normalization. Many shopping centers have however chosen to remain closed, postponing their reopening until June 1. On that day, the authorities lifted the travel ban between 15 cities, approved the restart of domestic flights and the reopening of public swimming pools. Government workers were also back in their offices.

Beaches and museums are open, and sailboat tours begin again as the government seeks to revive the vital tourism industry, which is a key source of foreign exchange and jobs.

Tamer Kiran, president of the Turkish Chamber of Navigation, told Nikkei that pleasure tourism had attracted no foreign customers in May and that this month would likely be the same. He said he hoped the number of foreign visitors would start to increase in July.

Turkey first reported its coronavirus case on March 11. Ten days later, the government closed more than 200,000 workplaces, including restaurants, cafes, spas and gymnasiums. Turkey reported more than 160,000 cases on Sunday, the largest count in the Middle East.

Since the start of the epidemic, Turkey has adopted targeted policies and progressive blockages. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly said that the government has an obligation to both “prevent epidemics and keep the economy alive”.

The government’s priority has been to keep the workforce active and the economy running. He ordered weekend closings in 15 cities, including Istanbul and the capital, Ankara. The authorities have also issued a residence order for people over 65 and under 18. This ordinance remains in force.

Health Minister Fahrettin Koca spoke to local media on Sunday, noting that at the height of the occupation, intensive care units in the country did not exceed 62 percent, indicating that the health system has not been overloaded. He said more than 6,000 contact tracing teams had been dispatched, helping to stem the spread of the virus.

So far, around 4,500 people have died from COVID-19 in Turkey, according to official figures. The country’s young population – the median age is 32 – has helped limit the loss of life.

But some fear a second wave of infections when the economy reopens. Health Minister Koca has said there may be “small effects” but does not expect “a big wave”. On the other hand, Sinan Adiyaman, president of the Turkish Medical Association, called the reopening of June 1 “too early”.

The Turks somewhat rallied to Erdogan during the epidemic. Polling company Metropoll rated its job approval rate at 52% in April, up from 41.1% in February. However, the timing of the pandemic was bad for the economy, which had just recovered from the monetary crisis that erupted in the summer of 2018.

Pinar Uguroglu, research manager at TEB Asset Management in Istanbul, predicts that Turkey’s gross domestic product will drop by two figures between April and June, compared to the same period last year. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the economy will shrink by 5% in 2020, but the Turkish authorities insist that it will grow. The bleak economic outlook makes the reopening of the Turkish economy even more imperative for policy makers.