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Erdogan reorganizes his Syrian priorities

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Al-Nahar, Lebanon, May 6

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement of a plan to voluntarily repatriate one million Syrian refugees to Turkish-held areas in northern Syria is aimed at undermining the Turkish opposition, which uses the map of refugee against Erdogan more than a year before the date of the presidential elections. Therefore, the return of Syrian refugees does not constitute a tangible change in Erdogan’s position on the Syrian crisis, but rather forms part of a reorganization of priorities for a president worried about opinion polls. The Turkish President still believes that the Turkish military presence in northern Syria has become a necessity for Turkish national security, especially in light of the hostility towards the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the fighters of the units of protection of the Kurdish people. Erdogan is taking advantage of Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine these days to reorganize his priorities in Syria. It seeks to become the most powerful regional player in this country, alongside Iran. In a sign of great political and military significance, Turkish authorities announced two weeks ago that they were blocking Russian planes from flying into their airspace if they were carrying Russian soldiers en route to Syria. At the start of the war in Ukraine, Ankara informed Moscow that it would not allow Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea to cross the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to the Black Sea, in accordance with the Montreux Convention of 1936. It should be noted that Russian ships ships in the Mediterranean have only one sanctuary, which is a base in the Syrian city of Tartus. These two decisions are directly linked to the Russian military presence in Syria. The administration of US President Joe Biden cannot continue to irritate Turkey, which occupies an important position on NATO’s southern border at a time of global confrontation with Russia. Between now and the presidential elections next June, Erdogan will take many measures aimed at improving his image and increasing his popularity, which has deteriorated due to the devaluation of the Turkish lira and the inflation it is experiencing in due to the pandemic. Erdogan will not hesitate to deploy all the tools and tricks at his disposal in the wake of the war in Ukraine to restore power to the Turkish economy, which he is fully aware will be the most determining factor in his destiny. Politics. Sameeh Saab

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