If the number of times a presidential candidate visits a state indicates how much he loves him, then Donald Trump loves Arizona.
Tuesday’s student rally for Trump in Phoenix marked the third time this year that the President has visited the state, despite the COVID-19 pandemic that severely hampered the schedules of the two main presidential campaigns.
But does Arizona love him back?
For the first time in recent memory, the state of the Grand Canyon is emerging as an essential battleground state that Trump and Biden might need to get the 270 crucial electoral votes needed to capture the White House in November.
Arizona has had no history as a battlefield state. He has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in 1996. Before that, the next most recent Democrat to win Arizona was Harry Truman in 1948. Despite this strong history of GOP support , the two most recent elections have shown that the shine can be out of the GOP for a large group of Arizona voters. Hillary Clinton came four points away from carrying the state in 2016 and Kyrsten Sinema became the first Democrat to represent the state in the Senate since Dennis DeConcini (1977-1995).
Mike Noble is the chief researcher at OH Predictive Insights, an Arizona-based polling firm that publishes a monthly political opinion poll. His research shows that Donald Trumps’ approval rating in the state is under nine points. Fifty-four percent of Arizona’s likely voters disapprove of the work Trump does.
On top of that, when Trump and Biden are tested in a head-to-head clash, Trump loses against Biden by seven points, 50 to 43.
Poll aggregation sites like FiveThirtyEight take all Arizona voter polls and apply an average formula to them to get the most reliable data. Biden is currently expected to be 4.4 points ahead of Trump in the state.
So how does a state that Donald Trump won in 2016 now seem to withdraw from him? The poll suggests that self-proclaimed independent voters living in the suburbs of Maricopa’s most populous county have backed off from Trump.
The maps below paint a picture of the state’s political landscape until November 2020.
The statewide map shows that most of the rural areas of the states, with the exception of the tribal lands of Navajo, Apache and Pima, are solidly Trump’s country.
Maricopa County, once a state republican stronghold, is now more complicated. Three hundred and thirteen of the county’s rural and peri-urban areas supported both Donald Trump and Martha McSally.
Three hundred and seventeen of the county districts located and spanning downtown Phoenix supported Hillary Clinton and then Kyrsten Sinema. Eighty-eight ridings that exist between these two groups were the deciding factor in Sinemas’ victory over McSally in 2018. These ridings, along with the demographically similar ridings that border them, are becoming a pivotal point in 2020.
These electoral districts all have a large number of independent registered voters.
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