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Spring Revolution: Improving Understanding with China and Other Neighbors

Spring Revolution: Improving Understanding with China and Other Neighbors

 


Koh Thiwn (MT)

Although Myanmar’s military junta was not invited to the Special ASEAN-US Summit held in Washington, D.C. on May 12-13, 2022, the US State Department invited the Minister of Foreign Affairs foreign national unity government (NUG) to visit the United States and hold meetings. The NUG Foreign Minister met with Deputy Secretary of State Ms. Wendy Sherman on 12 May. This official invitation marks significant diplomatic progress regarding the Burmese Spring Revolution, the latest version of Burma’s Federal Democratic Revolution, as well as an important development in the recognition of the NUG.

While the steps taken by the United States are pleasing, the signals and impacts on China’s foreign policy towards Burma are noteworthy. Now is a good time to analyze probable causes and future changes in China’s views and actions toward the Spring Revolution. China has an important relationship and strategic interest with Burma, and the potential consequences of Chinese policies as well as the proactive strategies the Spring Revolution can adopt to seek the best outcome should be carefully considered.

China’s position since the coup

Some information can be initiated in this brainstorming regarding China’s actions since the military executed its coup on February 1, 2021. Right after the coup, China seemed to approach Burmese affairs cautiously. In March 2021, they objected to the UN Security Council statement using the word coup, as the Burmese military had insisted they had not staged a coup illegal and instead declared a legal state of emergency. On the other hand, China agreed to condemn violence and arbitrary arrests against peaceful protesters and supported calls for respect for democratic institutions and norms.

After April 2021, after ASEAN accepted the five-point consensus, China supported ASEAN’s approach. It seems they have allowed a delay to wait and see how the Burmese conflict will be resolved from a distance. In September 2021, the Chinese Communist Party invited the National League for Democracy (NLD), which was the ruling party before the coup and won the 2020 general election, to the Asian Political Party Summit and sent the signal to the junta to stop efforts to dissolve the NLD. At the UN General Assembly, China allowed the status quo of keeping Burma’s current UN ambassador, Kyaw Moe Tun, to retain the seat representing the country.

The Chinese government was sort of sitting on the fence waiting to see the potential winning horse before placing its bet.

Since the beginning of 2022, it has become clear that the military junta cannot fully control the country. According to media data, less than 60% of the country could be controlled by the junta with frequent unrest. In addition, the military faces huge economic failure, an incredible number of defectors, the massive Civil Disobedience (CDM) movement and the growth of armed resistance movements formed by Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and brave volunteers. The junta responded with brutal oppression and heinous atrocities, causing even more disorder. Although no one can predict exactly if or when the junta might be defeated, it can be said that the junta is in the most difficult and weakest position since the 1962 coup.

In this environment, in April 2022, China invited the junta-appointed foreign minister to meet and discuss cooperation and other political issues, promising to provide financial support. China has begun to reveal its recognition of the junta.

Is China’s approach moving forward?

There may be three possible logical ideas for China’s Burma policy in the future. China may think that if the United States has improved its relations with the NUG, it should also strengthen its relations with the NUG. Or they may think that if the United States supports the NUG as a proxy in its neighboring country, it should also increase support for the junta as a counter-proxy. Alternatively, China may consider that there is still no clear winner and continue to take a more cautious approach by strengthening its relationship and support with both the junta and the NUG. Each possible logical entry will shape changes in China’s policy and deal with Burma in different ways. Which approach is most likely to come into play?

We can now see two possible Chinese concerns, which could mistakenly push China to forge closer ties with the junta. The first is based on their suspicion that the NUG and other actors in the Spring Revolution are proxies for the West. The second concern is that a possible security vacuum could harm political stability in the future.

How should the Spring Revolution address China’s concerns?

For the first concern regarding the relationship of the Spring Revolutions with the West, the NUCC and NUG should firmly stick to Burma’s independent and active foreign policy line. They must maintain and strengthen active relations with all members of the international community. This includes neighboring countries, ASEAN, Western states, the UN and others. They must establish regular and official relations with the Chinese government at different levels. They must continue to communicate that they are always working for the interests of both countries, based on the fact that they are the only ones who can work with the true support of the people and practice a people-centered approach. Although the United States has provided more public support for the NUG and NUCC and opposition to the junta, the Spring Revolution should continue to actively seek to build its relationship with China and allay fears that the NUG and the NUCC lack independence. Only then can lasting and solid results of cooperation between the two countries be achieved.

For the second concern about a potential security vacuum, the NUCC and NUG should communicate to China, and other members of the international community, the situation on the ground and their plans to address these concerns. China seeks stability in Burma. Therefore, they are sure to support the team they hope to win and who they believe can maintain stability. They may have security concerns about who can protect their interests now and whether there could be a future security vacuum. China may believe that the military would be able to prevent these scenarios, so it increasingly supports the junta. These concerns may also influence other Burmese neighbors.

However, it is increasingly clear that the junta itself was the cause of the instability. The junta is not only incapable of imposing the most basic stability, it is itself the engine of a political, humanitarian and economic disaster. The army is the part that commits atrocities and chases refugees across borders. Moreover, for more than 60 years, the military has proven itself incapable of peacefully governing Burma, which has led to more and more conflict and division. The NUG and NUCC should communicate these facts to the right audiences in China and other neighboring countries.

It is also important to develop and explain the specific roles and overall strategies of the existing EAOs and the newly formed People’s Defense Forces during the current interim period. The NUG and NUCC should explain their vision for the transitional arrangements, including for the reform of the security sector and command structures as well as for the drafting of the transitional constitution which will replace the current Federal Charter of Democracy. The NUCC has the responsibility to coordinate these strategies and plans as well as consult with other anti-junta organizations to maintain political stability in the future. The role of the NUCC as an advisory platform is very important. The deliberation between the forces of this platform on the future federal design will be very important for future political stability.

The NUCC and NUG must also plan ahead and prepare the best strategy to address the historical challenges Burma faced when trying to build a shared Federal Democratic Union. There have been many failures since independence, due to mistrust, betrayal, chauvinism and behavior contrary to federal democratic standards. The NUCC and NUG will require a strategy to maintain political stability and equality among stakeholders. They must all deliberate and decide among themselves what kind of federalism is best for Burma, and all decisions must be made by them collectively. This is based on the authentic concept of Coming-Together and to avoid the chauvinistic mindset or guardianship dominated by one ethnic group. However, the junta would never be able to establish a stable political system. He cannot win the support of the people or coordinate agreement among all ethnic Burmese and political actors.

Therefore, the forces in the leading roles of the Spring Revolution should maintain independent and active diplomatic relations with the West as well as with neighboring countries, especially with China. In the meantime, they should try to overcome the concerns of international communities, especially China and other neighboring countries, about the country’s post-conflict political stability. To do this, the revolutionary forces must be able to prove two things. The first is to show that they have systematic armed resistance based on a strong central command and the second is to show that they already have well-formulated transitional arrangements, agreed through inclusive deliberation to achieve a concrete conflict resolution after the Spring Revolution. In addition, it is important to ensure that China’s defense of the existence of NLD parties does not contribute to pushing the party into the junta-orchestrated sham elections in 2023. These upcoming elections are not in no way democratic and can only sow confusion. to the international community and divert attention from the underlying problems facing Burma.

Sources

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