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Liz Cheney’s odds against Donald Trump winning the 2024 GOP primary




Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney would face a daunting task to win the GOP nomination against Donald Trump, should they both choose to run in 2024, according to polls and betting odds.

In a recent interview with ABC, Cheney acknowledged that she may run for president in 2024 in order to prevent her former nemesis Trump from returning to the White House.

Cheney, one of two Republicans on the House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack, said she hasn’t “made a decision” about running for president in 2024.

“I’m obviously very focused on my re-election. I’m very focused on the Jan. 6 committee,” she said. “I’m very focused on my obligations to do the job I have now. And I’ll make a decision around 24.”

“But I think about it less in terms of deciding to run for office and more in terms of being an American – and as someone who’s in a position of public trust now – how do I make sure I’m doing everything can I do the right thing, do what I know is good for the country and protect our Constitution?”

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY), vice chair of the House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, interviews Cassidy Hutchinson, a former aide to Trump’s chief of staff at White House, Mark Meadows, as he testifies before the committee in the Cannon House Office Building on June 28, 2022 in Washington, DC. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

With the election still more than two years away, Cheney — whom Trump has long expressed his desire to see removed from office — is currently barely seen as an outside chance to land the nomination.

According to a recent Morning Consult poll, conducted between June 24-26, Trump is still the clear favorite among GOP voters, with 53% saying they would support him for the nomination, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. on 22% and former Vice President Mike Pence on eight percent.

By comparison, Cheney was among several potential candidates, including Senators Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who failed to garner even 3% support from Republican voters.

Elsewhere, betting exchange Smarkets does not currently list Cheney as a potential candidate for the next Republican presidential nominee. However, Smarkets includes Cheney in an expanded list of potential 2024 election winners, giving him a 0.33% chance of winning and odds of 200/1.

Trump and DeSantis are currently neck and neck favorites to become the next president, with Smarkets ranking them both as 20% likely to be the next person to enter the White House, with Joe Biden trailing third at 14%.

According to a collection of national surveys since November 2021, compiled by Polling USA, Trump is the clear favorite to land the GOP nomination if he runs. As of June 16, his poll average stood at 55.3%, with DeSantis second at 19.3% and Pence third at 12.5%.

Before Cheney can even consider a presidential bid and a potential showdown against Trump, she must first win her own GOP primary.

Cheney, who was censured by the Republican National Committee and no longer recognized as part of the party by the Wyoming GOP due to her role on the Jan. 6 panel and criticism from the former president, is aiming to defeat four candidates in the August vote, including Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman.

Although there was no reliable poll for the GOP primary, an internal survey by a pro-Hageman group released in June found the Trump-backed candidate had the support of 56% of voters, compared to 28% who said they would support Cheney.

Correction: This article has been edited to correctly state how far away the 2024 election is.




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