The situation will remain tense for a few months, at least until the internal situation in China clarifies
Chinese President Xi Jinping. Image courtesy of News18
In response to the visit of the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosis, to Taiwan on August 3, 2022, the Chinese military is carrying out military operations from August 4 to 6 around Taiwan. Two Chinese aircraft carriers and warships are near or in the Taiwan Strait, and fighter jets regularly breach the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone in batches of 15 or more aircraft. The question is: how does China expect this to happen? What could happen if the PRC decides to militarily unify Taiwan? And does Xi Jinping have the political will to do so?
Technically speaking, this is the fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis; the first was in 1955 when China seized the Yijiangshan Islands, forcing Taiwan to abandon the Tachen Islands. The second was in 1958 when China bombed the Kinmen and Matsu Islands, but the United States intervened. The third was in 1995-96 where massive Chinese military exercises were meant to signal China’s displeasure with Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the United States.
So what is different between 1995-96 and today?
On July 18, 1995, Beijing announced that missile tests would be conducted in an area about 90 miles off the coast of northern Taiwan, including DF-15 ballistic missiles. This time, however, the exercises take place much closer. Of the six exercise areas announced by China, some actually exceed the adjacent 24-nautical-mile zone and Taiwan’s territorial waters.
In 1995, after five days’ notice, Chinese navy ships and aircraft conducted ten days of live-fire trials on the mainland coast opposite Taiwan. Other military exercises were conducted in mid-November south of the strait, including joint operations involving air, land and forces. In 2022, however, reports indicate that Chinese landing craft in Fujian (the province facing Taiwan) are loaded with military vehicles and tanks indicating preparations for an amphibious landing. More than 100 military aircraft sorties conducted combat training exercises such as joint reconnaissance, aerial refueling, airspace control and ground target strikes. More than 10 Navy destroyers and frigates are conducting blockade operations in the waters off the island of Taiwan. In short, the three land, air and naval amphibious weapons are mobilized simultaneously.
Taiwan is no coincidence and China knows it very well
From 1949 to 2022: A look back at the highs and lows of the China-Taiwan relationship
US-China relations on the brink after House Speaker Nancy Pelosis’ visit to Taiwan
The intensity of military exercises this time has broken all previous records, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait is currently extremely tense. Drawing parallels to the Russian-Ukrainian war where drills turned into actual combat, what if the Chinese decide to escalate the situation? A full integrated attack cannot be ruled out, but it does not seem a viable option for China in the immediate future given the possibility of US and Japanese intervention. The big risk here is not Taiwanese resistance, but a war between the great powers.
This is precisely why a more likely scenario will be a long choke. With current forces, China can blockade Taiwan, crippling its economy, which will ultimately lead to real war if Taiwan chooses to end the blockade. The second option is a limited Chinese military offensive to capture the outer islands of Kinmen, Matsu and Taiping which are much closer to China than they are to Taiwan. Again, this would require enormous risk assuming it will be permitted without interference from the US and Japanese Navy. Either option would impose significant economic and psychological costs on Taiwanese citizens. In both scenarios, the Taiwanese government will have to use its military. While the balance of power is overwhelmingly in favor of China, this does not take into account training, morale and technological sophistication as well as Taiwan’s ability to execute asymmetric tactics.
If either of these scenarios materializes, Taiwan will have no choice but to accede to a few Chinese demands to minimize the possibility of even a limited war.
The question remains: does Chinese President Xi have the political will? The internal situation in China is not so favorable to the current Chinese establishment. Due to the removal of term limits for top Party positions, mismanagement of Covid-19, and a declining economy, President Xi Jinping has faced criticism from within the Party; several reputable Chinese citizens such as Professor Xu Zhangrun of Tsinghua University had been outspoken and forthright in their criticisms of the president and his policies. But President Xi further extended his control and launched a campaign to revive popular nationalism (including the study of Party history) to overcome his past setbacks. More than anything, such measures have made the cracks within the Party more evident and Xi would not want an armed conflict by launching a military attack on Taiwan in such a precarious domestic scenario.
Conversely, if he perceives the internal situation as too precarious and feels that he no longer has options for diversion, he may very well choose military action. One should watch his actions before the 20th Party Congress or immediately after its conclusion in October 2022. An image-building exercise based on publicity by Xi could indicate a reduced need for military action.
For now, the situation will remain tense for a few months, at least until the domestic situation in China clarifies.
The author is a researcher at the China Strategy and Analysis Center. Views are personal.
The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article
What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online
LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos
to request, modification Contact us at Here or [email protected]
- Gill says he is ‘compelled’ to testify against Imran – Newspaper August 13, 2022
- Rahul Gandhi questions Prime Minister Modi’s ‘silence’ on China | India is blooming August 13, 2022
- Bollywood Hit Party Tickets, Fri, 12 Aug 2022 at 10:30 PM August 13, 2022
- Floating dresses and loose dresses for summer August 13, 2022
- Rowing’s Raggi Named Finalist for CRCA Athlete of the Year August 13, 2022