Beijing is convinced that the White House does not have the backbone to follow the example set by Xi by sanctioning not only Mike Pompeo but President Pelosi. So far, even a senior PLA colonel has not been sanctioned by the Biden administration.
Handle: The commander-in-chief of all US armed forces, who is also the head of state and government of the world’s preeminent superpower, showed a lack of will in the military defense of US and allied interests during his pell-mell retreat from Afghanistan in the last year. Previously, as Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden had deemed the (successful) effort to neutralize Osama bin Laden in Operation Geronimo too risky. At least as long as Biden is in his current post, military planners at the Central Military Commission (CMC) in Beijing believe they have a window of opportunity to bully Taiwan into submitting to PRC overlordship. . This would occur initially through the demilitarization of Taiwan and the recognition of PRC suzerainty over the island nation, followed by further stages of integration in the manner seen in the (non)autonomous region of Hong Kong, which today has a similar degree of PCC. control over its operation as do other metropolises such as Shanghai, Macau and Guangzhou. Within the decision-making matrix of CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping, the CMC enjoys primacy even over the Politburo Standing Committee when it comes to final decisions by the Office of the General Secretary. As for the formal government headed by Premier Li Keqiang, it has been downgraded to a level resembling the period when Lin Biao, Chairman of Maos, Minister of Defense until his disgrace, reigned over the political field and provided the necessary nerve for Mao to humiliate and destroy the then CCP leadership.
Under the CCP version of the policy of strategic ambiguity followed by the United States and India in key issues concerning relations with the PRC, a few articles are allowed to be published from time to time which call for avoiding efforts to take military control of Taiwan. Such views do not reflect the consensus within the CMC that once two conditions are met, the time has come to invade and occupy Taiwan. These conditions are (a) that the United States refrain from intervening in such a conflict and (b) that the people of Taiwan accept, albeit of their own free will, the occupation by a much larger force of their country. As for NATO’s European partners, their pathetic performances in 21st century theaters such as Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Libya have convinced the CMC that the only army capable of confronting the APL is that of the United States. In such a context, the determination to resist or accept what will be telegraphed through the infowar as the inevitable PRC takeover of Taiwan is the question, and Bidens’ performance in kinetic and substantive contexts as opposed to symbolic White House moves has increased the number of CMC analysts who think President Biden can huff and puff, but otherwise accept rather than respond to the PLA conducting kinetic operations against Taiwan. If the United States did not react, the belief within the CMC is that Tokyo would also follow Washington’s lead in living with the inevitable.
WORDS, WORDS AND MORE WORDS
Whether in Japan, the US, the EU or India, there is a powerful infowar network operating under the direction of a senior colonel within the PLA. It is this network that has ensured the widespread belief among the population of these target areas that provoking the unprecedented escalation of PLA activity in Taiwan’s air and sea space since the President Pelosi left the country was created by her and President Tsai rather than General Secretary Xi Jinping. It is reminiscent of those misogynists who say that it is the provocative behavior of the victim of an assault rather than the attacker who is responsible for such an incident. What is happening across the Taiwan Strait is intended to (i) send the message to the United States (and therefore also to Japan) that any attempt to resist a future attempt to take military control of Taiwan is doomed to fail and (ii) convince the Taiwanese people that they are alone against the overwhelming force of the PLA, and that they must therefore vote to support Beijing in the next elections in Taiwan, c ie in a few months. Another trope is that for all its tactile rhetoric, the CCP will not resort to military force, but will use non-military means in its efforts to subjugate Taiwan. Such an impression runs counter to the evidence accumulated so far, including in the aftermath of Pelosi’s visit. Of course, the effort in infowar is to cover up the truth with lies, and in this the CMC infowarriors have had some success. It should be noted that so far it is Secretary of State Antony Blinken (who is seen by policy makers in China as being blissfully obsessed with Russia and Europe rather than paying due attention to China and the rest of Asia) rather than Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin who led the verbal indictment against PLA intrusions into spaces under the long-established jurisdiction of Japan and Taiwan. CMC infowarriors are spreading the story that it was External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar who stopped Secretary Blinken from adding Taiwan to the basket of tensions that the US Secretary of State mentioned in his public remarks as being discussed with EAM Jaishankar on the sidelines of the ASEAN Meeting. Given Jaishankars’ many outspoken statements on the subject of the PRC’s overreach, such a story is obviously concocted, especially as Prime Minister Narendra Modis’ actions in response to the PLA’s efforts in 2017 and 2020 to trample on Indian security concerns was a classic example of toughness. .
TIME TO ACT
Will Taiwan under Xi be what Czechoslovakia was in 1938, a default victory for a revisionist and authoritarian power intent on upsetting the status quo? Once again, with usual skill, the CMC infowar corps are spreading the story that the maneuvers to create Shock & Awe among the target countries are only once. This is the opposite of what they represent, which is a test for judging the likely reaction of the United States in particular to kinetic operations against Taiwan. Beijing is convinced that the White House does not have the backbone to follow the example set by Xi by sanctioning not only Mike Pompeo but President Pelosi, the third in line for the American presidency. So far, even a senior PLA colonel has not been sanctioned by the Biden administration, which has contented itself with painful expressions of shock from known Europe First ideologues such as the Secretary Blinken, Secretary of Defense Austin suddenly losing his voice in a way not seen in him in the matter of the conflict in Europe. The other two members of the Quad observe whether there will be measures that reflect the intent and intensity of how Xi Jinping has sought to redraw the red lines regarding kinetic activity directed against Japan and Taiwan, and a Similar reluctance is the case with ASEAN. As for the European powers, including the United Kingdom, the soothing tinkling of the cash registers of several corporate houses has so far caused them to act in a manner totally opposite to the fire and fury that they unleashed against Russia, a power that is above all well below the PRC in terms of threat and reaction capacity. Czechoslovakia has indeed been left to its own devices, and so far that seems to be the case with Taiwan as well, no matter how many times there is the pious tale of the anthem Taiwan is not alone by President Pelosi. The absence of substantial countermeasures, including sanctions rather than measures such as tariff relief favored by some within the US Department of Commerce, is necessary to avoid strengthening the CMC hawks sufficiently to enable them to achieve General Secretary Xi Jinping’s dream of annexing Taiwan.
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