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Why Xi Jinping Needs Taiwan

Why Xi Jinping Needs Taiwan

 


The theme is no longer the If but the When Taiwan will return to Beijing. Xi Jinping (69 years old, in power since 2013) has essentially formalized that this date is not so far away. When nobody knows, maybe not even him today, but there is no longer any doubt about the If.

Warrior vs dysplomatic: who will win?

Four factors condition the timing of Beijing’s decision, beyond the fact, common to many autarcies, that two currents of courtiers circulate around the Chinese Presidentissimo. Yes, precisely courtiers, not independent-thinking advisers. the said warmonger, (a remarkable part of the elderly military and a high percentage of party bureaucrats, those who survived the first hour) who pushed on the accelerator of the invasion, which pleased Lego del Capo. And then I Diplomats (the younger hierarchies of the army and the party) who support the current policy. They aim to change international political influences, with an almost hidden tactic. They want to lead China, economically, militarily and politically, to become the leadership of the new world, which will no longer be led by Washington.

A China which, primarily through economic leverage, obtains the consent of a growing number of states in need of aid, including military ones, and wishing to change alliances. On the other hand, this change of geomaps has been taking place before our eyes for a few years, both in Africa and in Latin America and in the dozens of small States of the Pacific islands. A reissue of Good game , in short, with the diplomatic tool associated with the judicious use of Chinese private companies to conquer new territories and new friends. With the revitalization, as we have already written, of the model of history India Company of English inspiration, as a tool of colonization less intrusive and embarrassing than the institutional tool of the Beijing government.

Who will win between the two addresses? It will also depend on how the four knots we mentioned earlier that remain awake will be untangled. Xi Jinping in his nocturnal dreams of domination.

1) the fight against the pandemic and its effectiveness in terms of results.

2) the revival of the economy which, precisely because of the pandemic, has slowed down its growth a lot, no longer clashing with the political objectives of the government and creating intuitive discontent among the population.

3) trade relations with Taiwan. Today, the island is the ninth trading partner of the United States and, above all, the world leader in the production of microchips (semiconductors) with 64% of the world market share. Beijing continues to import technology and engineers from Taipei and, despite the tensions of war, in 2021 the record for trade between the two Chinas was reached with a 24.8% increase in Taiwanese exports drawn from by microchips.

4) Last but not least, the re-election of Xi at the next party congress scheduled for November 2022.

The first two factors have largely contaminated this euphoric enthusiasm which reigned throughout mainland China based on unbridled progress and the increase in wealth, even personal, of each inhabitant of the country.
Xi was seen as the protagonist of this boom and the nationalist revival of the Greater China dream. He could finally, instead of his beloved and hated Russian cousins, challenge America for world leadership. COVID, real estate bubble, fall in GDP risk ruining his long-awaited dream.

Mao’s red flags are back in the spotlight

Human history teaches us that when a dictator has an internal crisis of consensus, he usually quickly seeks an external enemy to direct his people’s attention to. The attention of the cranky masses is shifted to other issues, usually by taking advantage of their nationalism. This spirit of conquest identity characterized by ocean gatherings where Mao’s red flags come to life as a symbol of imperial China’s revival.

There are elections in November

A way to divert the attention of your fellow citizens from unresolved economic problems and to launch the ball forward. This is why, next November, Xi will play all his cards for a re-election that would guarantee him more time to untie the knots that are now very tangled. Better to come to this, at this congress, with an ongoing media and information war with the United States. In which the greater or lesser stability of the Beijing-Moscow axis also plays a role. A spoken war, seasoned with muscular military maneuvers like those we have seen in recent days around Taiwan, or with the recapture of the island by a military operation?

Putin teaches

This last option supposes an American military and diplomatic defeat and a setback for all its Western allies. A possible scenario?
The Ukrainian affair should teach us something. The plans, however mad, of struggling autocrats should not be underestimated. Doctor Putin! A middle way could be that of an invasion, in the medium term, preceded by a naval and air blockade like what is happening now.

Militarily, there is no history

The disproportion of forces on the ground such that it leaves no doubt about the outcome of the conflict. The website Global Firepower this gives us a very clear picture of the situation. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy has 777 ships compared to 117 in Taiwan. Two aircraft carriers to zero, one helicopter carrier to zero, 79 submarines to 4, 41 destroyers to 4, 49 frigates to Taiwan’s 22, 70 corvettes to 2. Beijing Air Force has 3,285 warplanes against which Taiwan opposes 741. 1,200 fighters against 288, 912 helicopters against 208, to name just a few of the main figures to be assessed.

Who would remain inactive in the event of an invasion?

It is true that not all Chinese forces are deployable in the Taiwan Strait but the difference in firepower is still very evident.
The fundamental reflection is therefore another. But would the Americans, Japanese, South Koreans and Australians remain in their hands in the event of a Chinese attack? Would they limit themselves to a few protests at the UN?
We would reasonably be inclined to exclude it. For this reason, we think it’s best to focus on Diplomats in order to push D-Day as long as possible.

There are disturbing precedents

In this case, a commercial and political solution to the Taiwanese problem could be negotiated more calmly. The Hong Kong precedent does not help to be optimistic. Another precedent, however, that of Treaty of Minsk of September 5, 2014 on the future of Ukraine and its borders, it should represent a lesson and a warning on how we should then, after the signing of an armed truce agreement, not forget the problem, leaving the management of consequences to the strong side.

Ricardo Rossotto

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.lincontro.news/perche-xi-jinping-ha-bisogno-di-taiwan/

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