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Trump can win the 2024 nomination like he did in 2016: barely

Trump can win the 2024 nomination like he did in 2016: barely

 


When the Washington Post and our partners at ABC News asked Republicans if they wanted to see Donald Trump nominated in 2024, the results were perhaps surprising: less than half of respondents said they had done so, just nearly the same percentage as those who said the opposite.

It’s certainly not the position Trump would like to find himself in as speculation about the Republican field two years from now begins to take shape. Trump wants to exclude people, so that they see him as so dominant that there’s no point in getting into the race. He wants, in essence, that the primary of 2024 unfolds like that of 2020: a clear ground which allowed him to slide towards the general elections.

Our poll indicates that this is not the way forward for Trump. Instead, a one-on-one primary poll whose usefulness at this point is functionally equivalent to asking your cat what he thinks Trump is leading the pack but beyond 50% support.

In other words, where he was when he won the nomination and the presidency in 2016.

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The stranglehold Trump has maintained on the GOP for the past six years masks how loose he was in 2016. People know full well that he was elected that year with less than 50% of the vote; he got fewer raw votes than Hillary Clinton in the November general election. But what is less remembered is that he also received less than 50% of the votes in the primaries, becoming the first elected president to obtain less than 50% of the votes in every contest in the era of modern presidential primaries. .

See the yellow area on the graph below (reused from December 2016)? This is the area of ​​less than 50%. Trumps is the only winning presidential candidate integrated into it. President Biden, on the other hand, won most of the votes cast in the primary and general elections.

How do you win a nomination without winning most of the votes? There is a very important reason that you have already thought of and will come to in a second. But another reason is that the Republican nominating contest is designed to do just that.

There were 21 days on which voting or nominating conventions took place that year. Only on the last seven did Trump win a majority of the votes cast. There were days when he won a majority of votes in one or two states, but most of the time he got fewer votes than his competitors.

But the system helped him in two ways. The first is that there is a built-in advantage that goes to the winning candidate in a primary in many states. Nominations are won after candidates have secured a majority of delegates to the party convention. Often, the winner of a state, even if they get 45% of the votes cast, receives an additional number of delegates, with the rest distributed by voting margin. So if you win the state, even with less than half the vote, you can end up with most delegates.

In some states, the pot is even bigger: the winner simply gets all the delegates. Notice the third set of results above, shown with a black bracket. It was the primary in South Carolina, which was the winner. So Trump got 33% of the vote and all the delegates. Notice the dark bar below.

On Super Tuesday (highest spikes above), Trump benefited primarily because he got a disproportionate number of delegates in each state. The system was geared towards winning, not majority support.

The result was that the percentage of votes won by Trump remained below 50% for the duration of the primary season. Until the last primary contests, he was ahead of his opponents and added to his total of delegates. As the primaries progressed, he continued to hold about half of the delegates allocated to him even though he won only about a third of the votes cast.

Now, the obvious caveat: Trump was able to win the 2016 primaries because the field was so big for so long. He could snatch victory in South Carolina with 33% of the vote because there were still half a dozen competitors in the running against him. If there had only been two candidates after New Hampshire, it’s not clear that Trump would have won the nomination, which is why so many candidates have been hanging around, hoping they’ll be the last non-Trump candidate. to show up. Consequently, Trump continued to be able to leverage his fervent base of support for much of the primary season.

In other words, Trump sitting at 50% support as 2024 slowly approaches isn’t necessarily bad if no other candidate gets a majority of votes. The fact that he has a strong and energetic base that represents less than half of the electorate is more useful in a crowded field than in a narrow field. If the GOP electorate is split into thirds of Trump lovers, Trump haters, and those who might look elsewhere, giving voters in those second two groups more choices means a candidate is less likely to exceeds the former president.

So what our poll suggests is that if he wants to run, Trump should encourage as many people as possible to run. Keep a big field and tap into that energy base that others probably won’t be able to match. He can win in 2024 as he won in 2016: by the skin of his teeth.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/26/trump-election-2024-presidency/

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