Will Xi Jinping’s “new era” be 30 years old? Will he become a “regular” political star? | Xi Jinping | Li Keqiang | 20th Party Congress | Re-election | burning issues

[Voice of Hope, September 29, 2022](Full report by our reporter He Jingtian)The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is getting closer and closer, and the CPC has entered a state of comprehensive stability maintenance. Regarding burning issues such as how long Xi Jinping will be in power after his re-election, who will become the political star who will “assist” Xi in power, who will succeed Li Keqiang as the next prime minister after his departure, and others burning questions, British media gave the latest predictions on Thursday.

Will Xi’s re-election be contested?

Xi Jinping led a constitutional review in 2018 that removed term limits for the Chinese president, paving the way for continued rule.

From September 14 to 16, Chinese leader Xi Jinping attended the 22nd Meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Heads of State Council held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. President of the Republic Mirziyoyev has invited the two countries for a state visit.

According to a September 29 report from the BBC’s British Chinese website, according to these trends, Hong Kong news commentator Liu Ruishuo said that this reflects the fact that Xi Jinping’s status is already very strong, otherwise he will not go abroad before the 20th National Congress. .

Chen Cheng, a political science professor at the State University of New York at Albany, said Xi Jinping’s re-election as head of the 20th Party Congress was certain.

Chen Daoyin, a former associate professor in the Department of Politics at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, who now lives in Chile, also believes Xi Jinping has no challenge.

Chen Daoyin said, “In terms of power structure, no party power department can challenge Xi’s authority, and no party leader is willing to challenge Xi’s authority. There must be complaints, but they’re definitely ready to stand up and carry the story. No responsibility or political mission.

Chen Daoyin believes that since 2012, Xi Jinping could influence and dominate Chinese history for 30 years.

Chen Daoyin said that when Xi Jinping came to power, he proposed a new era to distinguish it from the Deng era. Mao Zedong’s era lasted 30 years, Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening-up” era lasted 30 years, and Xi Jinping’s “new era” was about 30 years away. Now 10 years have passed and it will probably take another 10 years. I can’t say if it will be another 10 years.

“After 2032, maybe Xi Jinping will step down, but he can still be the absolute authority within the party like Deng Xiaoping,” he said.

On the issue of successors, Chen Cheng said there was no obvious successor until the 20th National Congress.

Chen Cheng said, “After the 20th National Congress, it is not easy to predict how long Xi will be the supreme leader. If there is no obvious successor to the 20th National Congress, it means he left his option for re-election in the future.

“Seven ups and eight downs” means that CCP officials who are 68 years old leave office, and those who are 67 years old and younger can stay in their jobs.

Currently, Xi Jinping, Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng are all 68 years old among the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee. By convention, neither Li Zhanshu nor Han Zheng could remain in office, leaving two vacancies for the Standing Committee.

Chen Daoyin pointed out that although “seven ups and eight downs” is not a legal system for the replacement of leadership power in a strict sense, only Xi Jinping can break the “seven ups and eight downs” convention.

Chen Cheng believes that Xi is unlikely to completely change the “seven up and eight down” conventions at the 20th National Congress.

Chen Cheng said, “Xi’s own re-election also went through a major move like amending the constitution to make it procedurally justifiable. At the time, Xi had not changed the practice of “several oversights” because of his close confidant Wang Qishan, and he probably won’t now. Therefore, Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng should resign from the Standing Committee and have other appointments.

The BBC reported that if a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee leaves office, who will “join the permanent” to fill the vacancy. In this regard, Liu Ruishao pointed out that Xi Jinping should consider two factors at the same time: “First, those who join the Standing Committee or stay on the Standing Committee will have a better understanding of the future. Does Xi Jinping’s personal power have an influence? Second, these people must be able to help him solve the problem. If he only focuses on promoting his own people and can’t solve the problem, it won’t be good for him.

Chen Daoyin thinks it is possible to observe the positions held by the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee before taking office. The first is made up of municipal party secretaries from several municipalities directly under the central government, such as Shanghai, Chongqing and Tianjin, and provincial party secretaries from major economic provinces, such as Guangdong. Former Xi Jinping subordinates in Zhejiang and Shanghai are also popular candidates for “permanence”.

After Xi Jinping assumed leadership of the Communist Party, he promoted a number of his subordinates in Zhejiang and Shanghai. Known as the “New River Army” or “Xi’s Army,” these people include Cai Qi, secretary of the Beijing Municipal CPC Committee, Li Qiang, secretary of the Shanghai Municipal CPC Committee, Chen Miner, secretary of the Chongqing Municipal CCP Committee. Committee, Li Qiang, secretary of the CPC Guangdong Provincial Committee, and Ding Xuexiang, director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee.

The CCP virus outbreak in Shanghai in the first half of this year has made Li Qiang’s career confusing, and political analysts have different views on his future direction.

Chen Daoyin believes that Li Qiang’s actions in Shanghai have just carried out Xi Jinping’s orders, and neither good nor bad will affect his personal development.

Chen Cheng said: “The epidemic in Shanghai was indeed very badly handled and Li Qiang was not punished, but damage to his reputation would certainly have an impact. This does not mean that it is completely impossible to become a regular, but if he does, Xi Jinping will inevitably suffer because he has been criticized for being crony.

However, Chen Cheng also said that regardless of the final composition of the Standing Committee, Xi’s central position will not be shaken and the new Standing Committee will faithfully carry out Xi’s line and policy on this basis.

Hu Chunhua is more likely to be prime minister?

In March this year, current Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told a press conference at the National People’s Congress that this year was the last year of the current government and his last year as prime minister. The remarks appeared to reveal that he would not remain prime minister.

Chen Daoyin said Li Keqiang had already made his voice before the resignation and was ready to get off at the station.

Chen Cheng thinks that Li Keqiang can still remain a member of the Standing Committee, and even if he does not remain a member of the Standing Committee, Li will probably get a decent appointment.

Within the CPC, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Wang Yang, Chen Min’er and Li Qiang are all popular candidates for the post of prime minister.

Hu Chunhua, 59, and Li Keqiang, 67, both graduates of Peking University and from “Tuanpai”. Hu Chunhua was successively governor of Hebei, secretary of the party committee of Inner Mongolia and secretary of the provincial party committee of Guangdong. “Yuanpai” officials all move to the Communist Party’s center of power through the Chinese Communist Youth League, and Hu Jintao, the former general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, is also considered a member of the “Tuanpai”. .

Liu Ruishao believes that compared to applicants who have not been admitted for permanent residence, it is impossible to see who is more experienced than Hu Chunhua, since he has experience in the region and also in the central government; Chen Miner only has local work experience, not in the central government. professional experience.

Chen Cheng pointed out that Hu Chunhua is very likely to be a member of the Standing Committee: “Although he has a background in the Tuan faction, that will not be the reason Xi suppresses him. In recent years, Hu has been relatively low-key, and Xi’s arrangement with his supervisor is also more important to Xi himself. Hu’s promotion will be an important part of the 20th National Congress to reflect party unity. Hu has the potential to become the next prime minister.

Responsible editor: Lin Li

This article or program was edited and produced by Voice of Hope. Please credit Voice of Hope and include original title and link when reprinting.