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Indo-Chinese tension: neither side wants a complete break, according to Michael Kugelman | Exclusive

 


In this photo of October 16, 2016, Prime Minister Narendra
Image Source: AP

In this photo from October 16, 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President and Chinese President Xi Jinping shook hands with leaders at the BRICS summit in Goa, India.

Since the violent Galwan clashat which has resulted in the martyrdom of 20 Indian soldiers and victims on the other side as well, bilateral India-China relations have bottomed out. Seven weeks later, the bitter confrontation between the two countries continues to keep them at bay. On Saturday, the Indian Prime Minister rushed to the outposts of the Ladakh valley, clearly signaling that India would not leave any stone to guarantee its territorial line. “Galwan’s murders are the nail in the coffin for China and Indian relations”, an editorial in the Foreign police Lily.

New Delhi and Beijing have held several rounds of diplomatic and military talks to ease tensions. India insisted on restoring the status quo ante in all regions of eastern Ladakh in order to restore peace and tranquility. However, there are no visible signs of an end to the impasse, although the two sides have agreed to trigger the disengagement of forces from the region. Does this mean that the Sino-Indian relationship has deeply damaged life? None of the countries want a complete breakdown in bilateral relations, at least that’s what Michael Kugelman, an expert from South Asia, feels. Galwan is not the first Chinese transgression, but it is certainly the most blatant which injured New Delhi and, more importantly, Prime Minister Modi who had hoped for better Indochinese relations – his visit to Wuhan and the trip to Tamil Nadu de Xi Jinping is an example. .

Add to that the posture of the Chinese PLA, which attempted to change the status quo at Lake Pangong, but which was denied by the vigilant Indian defense forces. It’s no secret that China faces absolute heat at the global forum for its mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis. India TV spoke to Michael Kugelman to understand what is behind China’s position and can this impasse lead to a bigger war between two nuclear-weapon countries knowing full well how the two economies are linked. Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Wilson Center in Washington, said China’s actions were largely aimed at “telegraph force”. Here are some excerpts from the interview:

From “the spirit of Wuhan” to the bonhomie of Mamallapuram and now to the current impasse of LAC, how do you see India-China relations changing in the near future?

India faces an increasingly assertive rival who is keen to defend its interests and assert its land claims more forcefully. It is, as China itself says, wolf warrior diplomacy. Despite Prime Minister Modis’ efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing through personal relationships with Xi, Beijing intends to take a tougher line – and that includes robust provocations along the disputed border in Ladakh.

What reasons do you see for China to break the deadlock?

There is a range of motivations that probably explain the behavior of China here. One is the Indian road construction LAC, which includes new infrastructure extending from Leh to the Karakoram pass. It’s a lot of territory, and it allows India to project energy over a large area, and this worries China. the repeal of section 370 Beijing also rejected the decision because, according to China, it was a unilateral measure to change the territorial status of Ladakh.

the Coronavirus pandemic is also a real factor. China has received a lot of criticism for its initial handling of the virus, and it has found itself on the defensive before the court of world public opinion. He therefore had to take difficult measures which displayed challenge and tenacity. There is also the Triangle United States-China-India. With the deterioration of American-Chinese relations and the strengthening of American-Indian relations, Beijing wanted to send a harsh message to the public in Washington and New Delhi. Finally, there is the issue of wolf warrior diplomacy – China is on the offensive on a global scale and Ladakh is just one of the last demonstrations.

At a time when India is already grappling with a huge health crisis, do you think China has deliberately chosen the time to engage India in a dispute?

Certainly. China, which had weathered the worst stages of the pandemic when India experienced the worst, may have sought to take advantage of India’s vulnerabilities. But there is also another more general aspect of the coronavirus angle: China has responded to India, one of the many countries critical to Beijing’s management of the pandemic, by organizing provocations for telegraph challenge.

What do you think is the real reason for China behind such provocations? Is it just muscle flexion or does it look like the start of a larger shot?

It is difficult to say what is the wider end of China’s game in Ladakh. But it seems quite clear that he intends to put much more pressure on Indian land claims than before, along the LAC region. The provocations are stronger this time than in the past and the PLA incursions have lasted longer than in the past. I have the feeling that China wants to send a strong message, and it does not want to be the first to back down. Beyond that, I don’t think China wants a conflict. For Beijing, it’s all about telegraphic strength and making India feel inferior and vulnerable in its own neighborhood.

There is widespread anger in India against China, particularly on the economic front. A number of responses come at different levels. Will it really affect China?

Economic retaliation against China is inevitable, as New Delhi would not want military options against its more powerful rival either, but is under tremendous political pressure to react. But India is taking a big risk in using economic punishment tactics against China. The Chinese economy is much larger than the Indies and is heavily invested in key Indian sectors, from technology to automobiles. By pushing China economically, the Indian economy may well suffer more than China. And especially now, with India experiencing its worst slowdown in years, and which has worsened further because of the pandemic.

Everything is not going well between the United States and China. Do you think China is uncomfortable with a closer proximity between India and the United States? Do you draw a link with the LAC shock?

Certainly, the American-Chinese spat is a key factor in the assessment of motivations from Beijing to Ladakh. We can assume that Beijing wanted to send a harsh message to one of the fastest growing partners on the American continent in Asia, and a partner that the United States sees as a key player in Indo-Pacific Washingtons policy. , which aims to balance the power of China in the region. Now I say that China would not have caused the Ladakh crisis if its relations with the United States had been better? No. Beijing had many other motivations for acting as it did. But his horrific relations with Washington gave him a strong additional incentive to act boldly and aggressively against a country that is rapidly approaching its increasingly bitter rival.

Do you think India should rework its approach after the recent episode of LAC?

Modiis is already signaling a different and harsher position by announcing new economic reprisals against China. [India has banned 59 Chinese Apps including TikTok ]

The Wuhan spirit, the idea that friendly relations with Xi can maintain generally friendly bilateral relations despite border tensions, is pretty much dead now. However, Modisuse ofsoft power more generally is important and will continue. Prime Minister Modi has many allies abroad, and he will want to tolerate this support in the event of a major escalation and if India needs to rely on friendly global diplomatic support as well as additional support, such as support intelligence it has received from the United States in the past during these border disputes.

Do you think Pakistan will also take advantage of the timing to play mishaps at the LOC?

At the very least, Pakistan will likely use India’s distraction on the LAC to intensify activities along the LoC through intensified cross-border fire. There is also the possibility, particularly as Indo-Pakistani relations continue to worsen, that Islamabad could encourage militant assets in Jammu and Kashmir to launch attacks against the Indian security forces. It is a less likely possibility, but it is always real, and especially taking into account the fact that India has redeployed certain J&K troops in Ladakh.

The great Indian leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee once said: “You can change your friends, not your neighbors.” Do you think, at least, that the attitude of the neighbor will change soon, especially when he is stuck in the world against the fororonavirus?

I really think, despite the strong tensions in bilateral relations, that China does not want a complete break with India, just as India does not want a complete break with China. Beijing does not want to have a conflictual relationship with the United States and India. It also benefits from Indian support in a number of global forums, from BRICS to AIIB. Cooperation with India in global forums is helping China pursue its interests abroad, as part of its broader efforts to become a leading power. And incidentally, India thinks the same way of global cooperation with China, it would have a lot to lose if a break in the relationship made it lose partnership opportunities with Beijing abroad.

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