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China plans to join trans-Pacific deal rejected by Trump

 


China is expressing interest in joining the updated Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, which was originally designed as the centerpiece of the Obama administration in Asia, to cement a non-Chinese Asian regional group.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told the National People’s Congress in late May that China has a positive and open attitude towards the signing of the agreement. His comments were repeated later by the spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, Gao Feng, who noted that the agreement complied with the rules of the World Trade Organization.

After U.S. President Donald Trump delivered on his 2016 election promise to withdraw from the TPP, Japan and Australia pushed the remaining 11 members to sign the deal, which was renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Partnership Agreement transpacific, without the United States.

It is difficult for non-Americans to understand what has become an American bipartisan opposition to the TPP, since American officials designed the agreement taking into account the strategic interests of nations and the priorities of its corporate sector . Yet there is a popular belief in the United States that trade agreements are responsible for the erosion of its manufacturing industry and its standard of living.

The TPP was to be the most advanced regional trade agreement in the world, with provisions covering digital commerce, protection of intellectual property, investment rights, environmental and labor standards and transparency of public enterprises.

In public, US officials have said that China would be welcome, but only if it could meet the demanding standards of the TPP. All members have retained their right of veto on any new member.

The inclusion of Vietnam among the remaining 11 members, alongside Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru and Singapore, shows that it is possible for a non-market economy to overcome barriers to entry.

After the withdrawal of Trumps, the renegotiated agreement suspended a series of controversial provisions which the United States had insisted upon due to the objections of the other participants. They included much tighter intellectual property protection for data, biological material, copyright and improvements to existing pharmaceuticals. Provisions making it easier for US oil companies to sue governments of independent jurisdictions have also been suspended.

However, the new agreement still contains advanced intellectual property protections and includes guarantees for labor and environmental standards.

It also includes a far-reaching provision on public enterprises, preventing them from benefiting from preferential financing and access to public markets, and from granting preferential treatment to local enterprises. Higher levels of transparency are required. Vietnam accepted these restrictions, believing that there was potential for great rewards in being the group’s low-cost manufacturer.

China’s economic reforms have continued under the leadership of Xi Jinping in some regions. There is better access to foreign investment, better regulation of the financial system and better protection of intellectual property, the latter reflecting the fact that China is now a major producer of patents. However, China has made little effort to impose greater market discipline on its state-owned enterprises.

China’s preferential treatment of state-owned enterprises has become a major stumbling block in its negotiations with the European Union over a bilateral investment agreement. A video meeting Xi and Li with EU President Ursula von der Leyen last month went wrong; no press release was published subsequently and the negotiations which followed led to an impasse.

The EU is pushing for non-discriminatory treatment of European investments in China in relation to Chinese state-owned enterprises, as well as the end of subsidies and greater transparency. He also wants to suppress requests for investment in joint ventures and forced technology transfer.

China, for its part, wants guaranteed access to its companies to invest in Europe, including in infrastructure. While Beijing has promised to come back with reform proposals, the EU is tightening its stance on filtering Chinese investment for reasons of national security.

Under Jiang Zemin’s leadership in the 1990s, China used WTO membership as a lever to advance far-reaching economic reform in the face of considerable domestic opposition.

Although Xi has not shown similar reform zeal, China may surprise with reforms of state-owned enterprises to meet European demands and potentially those of the CPTPP. Beijing may feel the need to preserve its global trade and investment rights as Western governments increasingly focus on the implicit threats of China’s rise.

Modeling by the respected Peterson Institute for International Economics shows that there would be big economic gains if China joined the CPTPP. In its current form, the group is expected to achieve global revenue gains of just under $ 150 billion a year. It would quadruple to $ 632 billion if China joined.

China would gain many benefits from joining the group, but one of the most important is that regional supply chains are secured by mutual tariff reductions and rules of origin which require goods benefiting from such reductions are made from inputs largely from the Region.

It is also an advantage flowing from the other major regional trade treaty to be concluded this year, the Full Regional Economic Partnership, which includes Japan, South Korea, the 10 ASEAN countries, Australia and New Zealand. This reduces the ability of the United States to disrupt trade in high-tech products with China.

The United States is content to watch these developments from the outside. The Trump administration pioneered the idea of ​​an economic prosperity network that would include Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam, with the aim of developing chains of that exclude China.

However, it is difficult to imagine that such a trade grouping would be cemented by an administration whose primary objective is America first and which has pursued its own bilateral trade agreement with China.

Trump’s rival in this year’s presidential election Joe Biden said he would consider U.S. participation in the CPTPP if his conditions could be improved. China’s expression of interest is an additional incentive to do so.

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