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Will Erdogan finally keep his vow to invade northern Syria?

Will Erdogan finally keep his vow to invade northern Syria?

 


Abu Dhabi, UAE CNN Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week launched a series of airstrikes against Kurdish militants in northern Syria and warned that a ground operation would soon follow.

The aerial operation which began on Sunday and its warnings three days later come after a an explosion shook Istanbul a week ago, killing at least six people and injuring more than 80 others. Turkish officials have blamed Kurdish separatists for the blast, a claim denied by Kurdish groups.

Erdogan said the strikes were just the beginning and that the Turkish Armed Forces would overthrow the terrorists by land at the most opportune time.

Earlier Wednesday, the Ministry of Defense said 471 targets had been hit and 254 terrorists neutralized since the start of the assault, dubbed Operation Claw-Sword. CNN cannot independently verify the number of victims.

But Erdogan promised an incursion in northern Syria since May. He had previously said that an invasion was aimed at creating a 30 km (20 mile) deep safety zone which would be emptied of allied fighters at the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group that Turkey and the United States consider a terrorist organization.

Analysts said that Erdogan had stopped short of acting on his vow to invade because he failed to get the green light from Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country has a large military presence in Syria.

But on Wednesday, Russia’s chief negotiator Alexander Lavrentyev said that Moscow tried to convince Turkey refrain from conducting large-scale ground operations.

The area of ​​northern Syria targeted by Erdogan includes the three key towns of Manbij, Tel Rifaat and Kobani, which are under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The SDF, supported by Washington, had contributed to the fight against Daesh since 2014. But its backbone is the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia, which Turkey sees as a wing of the PKK and seeks to eliminate.

CNN asked Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute, how likely the Turkish leader is to keep his promise this time around.

Turkey has been saying for months that it will begin its next foray. Are today’s complaints different or more serious?

I think given previous Turkish incursions into northern Syria, this time something doesn’t seem to be moving so fast. Typically, Turkish incursions follow a day or two of cross-border artillery bombardment and drone strikes, and then the military intervenes. This time, the cross-border artillery bombardments and drone strikes last almost a week, and [there has been] Nope [ground] stock. So that means something is missing.

How do you view the Kremlins’ recent comments on a possible incursion? Do you see it as a green light?

Now usually when Turkey enters northern Syria, it has to get the green light from two superpowers that have a military presence in Syria, i.e. the United States and Russia.

But Russia is not aligned. I think Russia wants more before giving the green light to a full-scale Turkish incursion. What Russia wants is for the Turkish government in Ankara to engage the Assad regime and commit to ending the war, sort of in a global handshake. And of course, this kind of discussion will take days, even weeks and months. So I think that until we see this kind of discussion mature and come to a conclusion, Putin will not give the green light to a Turkish incursion.

Given Turkey’s growing importance to the West amid the war in Ukraine, are Western states likely to turn a blind eye to an incursion?

The United States has generally opposed Turkish incursions because they target the YPG. But the United States relied on the YPG to fight ISIS. So it’s never happy when Turkey targets the YPG.

But this time things are different. [Firstly], the big strategic picture is changing. Importance of turkeys [to] the United States has changed as American policy moves away from the desert [Middle East]and focuses on the [Eurasian] steppe, or zooms out of Syria and Ukraine.

Thus, the American view is that the strategic importance of Turkey has increased. This is long term change.

In the short term, there is also a tactical vision [in] Washington, which is that Turkey opposed NATO’s northern expansion. I think Ankara used its hand well in raising objections to Sweden’s membership. And so right now, Washington really does not want to irritate Turkey. And I think that applies to all key NATO allies.

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