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Why is Xi Jinping afraid to open up China?

Why is Xi Jinping afraid to open up China?

 


Damn if you do, damn if you don’t.

Right now, President Xi Jinping’s administration in Beijing is caught in a vicious circle.

If they remove Covid-zero restrictions, as protesters in several cities want, they risk having a major outbreak. Already, a record number of cases have been reported every day for the entire past week.

However, if they continue with the restrictions, they now risk an uprising that could prove crucial in the country’s history, coming close to the events in Tiananmen Square in terms of political impact.

The only conundrum plaguing many Chinese watchers around the world is this: why would the Xi administration in Beijing continue to stick to a policy that all nations abandoned in 2020, in the early months of the pandemic? herself ?

Beyond the first weeks of national shutdowns, administrations, even in Europe where the pandemic has caused a horrific human toll, have moved towards a balance between Covid controls and economic recovery.

China, however, remains where Wuhan was at the end of February 2020 all locked down.

For example, in India, the weeks between March and May 2020 were spent strengthening the health infrastructure, preparing for what then appeared to be an impending epidemic across the country, etc.

Beyond May 2020, policy-making agility kicked in and as a result, even in the Delta wave, there was no full nationwide lockdown.

During the Omicron wave, when cases peaked at over 400,000, economic activities remained largely unhindered. No one-size-fits-all approach!

Xi, however, is willing to risk everything to ensure China remains closed.

This includes the loss of manufacturing operations of key multinationals, such as Apple, which has already shifted production of some of its hardware components to India and Vietnam.

More than 60% of European companies surveyed (around 350) announced lower revenues for 2022, and a quarter of them were considering leaving China. Toyota, Tesla and even Volkswagen had confirmed falling production figures in May 2022, before lockdowns escalated.

Four plausible reasons explain Xi’s fright.

A, weak health infrastructure in China. When Wuhan happened, the inability of the community or local hospitals to contain the outbreak was asserted.

Reports of outdated equipment, a lack of qualified personnel and experienced doctors, and a lack of testing and monitoring facilities have surfaced. Many citizens, with no faith in community hospitals, went to city hospitals, furthering the epidemic.

So in Beijing, a large outbreak could spell the end of medical infrastructure, prompting a decision to lock down cities instead.

Of them, vulnerability even after vaccination coverage. First, the numbers are dismal. Only 80% of the population over the age of 60 received two injections and only 55% received a booster dose. In a country of 1.4 billion people, those numbers can have big implications during an outbreak.

Second, the lack of mRNA doses and the political call not to import them intensifies citizens’ vulnerability to the virus. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also made remarks against the potency of Chinese vaccines.

Three, the economic downturn (more on that here, here, here, here and here).

Even before the pandemic hit China, the music was slowing down. The economic growth projection, against the official 5.5%, is around 3%, given the unprecedented blockages.

Homeowners also protested delayed infrastructure projects, retail sales plummeted and Beijing’s administration had to bail out local governments with special financing vehicles.

Could the shutdowns be an excuse to buy time to get the economy in order?

Four, the coronavirus is an excuse for the Beijing administration to step up state surveillance.

Already, many businesses, including games, tutoring and online utilities, have fallen prey to the crackdown.

Under the pretext of solving the demographic problem, the government deployed the pandemic to regulate property prices while bailing out developers with hundreds of billions of dollars in aid.

However, the biggest loser has been the average citizen, who now depends on the benevolence of the state to live their routine lives.

In China, in some cities, people are required to take a daily Covid test, and without a negative result, they cannot access the usual public services, such as grocery stores, schools, etc.

Thanks to increased digitization over the past two years, Beijing now keeps track of every move. For example, every taxi ride in China begins with the reading of a QR code that registers the citizen in a government database.

Biometric details collected over the past few months, combined with data recorded daily, now allow Beijing to profile more than a billion people.

Xi won a third term, likely for life, just six weeks ago, and yet, even with all the political clout, he refuses to open up China. In the early months of the pandemic, this might have been excused as necessary caution, but nearly three years later, it has more to do with the administration’s hidden agendas.

More than the citizens, the Xi administration is afraid for itself.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://swarajyamag.com/commentary/covid-zero-why-is-xi-jinping-afraid-of-opening-up-china

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