Politics
Peace or politics? In Ukraine, Turkey watches Asia Times
As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its ninth month, Turkey has become one of the most important external actors in the conflict. While most world powers choose sides, Ankara has managed to preserve its ties with Moscow and Kyiv, positioning itself as a key mediator to end the conflict.
But is peace really Turkey’s motivation, or is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan more interested in gaining as much influence as possible over Russia?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly praised what he callsTurkish neutralitytowards the war. The irony, of course, is that while Ankara has kept lines of communication open with both sides, it’s far from neutral.
Turkey not only supplies Ukraine with Bayraktar drones, but also with TRLG-230precision-guided missiles. In October, the Turkish shipyard RMK Marine even launched the first Ukrainiananti-submarine warship.
Additionally, Turkish drone maker Baykar is expected to complete adrone manufacturing plantin Ukraine over the next two years. Does this mean that Erdogan, Putin Dear friendreceived guarantees from the Kremlin that Russian forces will not attack the Turkish investment?
As defeatist as this may sound for Russia, it would not be the first time the two leaders have entered into such an arrangement. They have a history of lucrative dealings,SyriaandLibyaatArmenia and Azerbaijan.
Recently, Erdogan confirmed that he supports the shipment of Russian grain to poor African countries. Coincidentally or not, the countries to which Russia will send its grain for free, Mali, Djibouti, Sudan and Somalia, are the very places where Turkey has tried toincrease its influence. So, from Erdogan’s perspective, Putin’s goodwill gesture will help Ankara achieve its own foreign policy goals.
After the Kerch Bridge explosions in October hampered Russia’s ability to resupply its forces in Crimea, the Kremlin withdrew from theBlack Sea Grains Agreement, accusing Ukraine of using the Security Corridor to attack the Russian Black Sea Fleet. However, a single phone call with Erdogan was enough for Putin to change his mind and agree to allow Ukraine to export its grain via the Black Sea.
As a result, Turkey can now buy grain from both Ukraine and Russia atlower pricewhich will greatly benefit Turkey’s inflation-hit economy.
Indeed, the extension of the grain deal again positions Turkey as an important player in the conflict and suggests that Erdogan has significant influence over Putin. But why?
Due to Moscow’s international isolation, Turkey has become Russia’s main gateway to the world. Turkey remains the only member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that has not imposed sanctions on Russia, giving Putin an economic lifeline. It is therefore not surprising that the Kremlin has turned a blind eye to Ankara’s actions in Ukraine and, more recently, in Syria.
After the launch of TurkeyAirstrikesin northern Syria last week, Erdogan went out of his way to emphasize that hedid not warn Putinin advance, although Russia has its own military presence in Syria. Erdogan is well aware that Moscow is unable to help either the Kurdish-dominated People’s Defense Units in northern Syria, Ankara’s main target, or President Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian Arab Army.
Likewise, after Turkey recently decided totighten the ruleson tankers transiting through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, a decision that could restrict the flow of Russian oil, Moscow has once again had to put its head in the sand.
Essentially, Turkey is buying Russian silence. In 2021, the trade volume between Russia and Turkey reached almost $35 billion and is expected to approach $60 billion this year, according toRussian sources. In addition, the Kremlin aims to increase its energy cooperation with Ankara and to make Turkey a regional player.gas hub.
Although Erdogan supports the idea of gas, there is no guarantee that the European Union will give the green light to such a project. This would require the construction of both theTurkStream 2 Gas Pipeline firstoffersby Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller in 2019, but also a new pipeline that would cross EU members Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. If Russia remains under Western sanctions, such an outcome is unrealistic.
Although he has significant influence over Putin, Erdogan is unlikely to have the clout needed to end the war in Ukraine. What he can do is continue to mediate in an attempt to force Russia out of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and help Moscow and Kyiv reach agreements on grain and ammonia shipments, trade in prisoners and even a ceasefire.
And yet, the bigger question is: What’s in it for Erdogan? One possible answer is internal support. With Turkish general elections scheduled for June 2023, Erdogan may seek to bolster his foreign policy record, using his influence over Putin to convince Turks that his Justice and Development Party (AKP) is essential for security. and Turkey’s long-term economic growth.
Whatever the reason, the fact is that at this stage of Turkey-Russia relations, only one leader is in charge. This puts Erdogan in an enviable position. How he chooses to use this power could reshape the region for years to come.
This article was provided bySyndication desk, who owns the copyright.
Follow this writer on Twitter @nikola_mikovic.
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Sources 2/ https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/peace-or-politics-in-ukraine-turkey-eyes-both/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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