Iit is difficult to manage the biggest health crisis of the last century on the fly; it is even more difficult when this health crisis is accompanied by a global economic depression. Some countries have apparently succeeded. The United Kingdom is not one of them. And we haven’t even crossed Brexit yet.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is currently responsible for leading his country through three distinct, but interdependent, health, economic and political crises, once in his life … Initial returns are far from promising.
How the UK got here:
With over 44,000 deaths, Great Britain remains the most affected country of European countries in absolute numbers and currently has the third highest mortality rate in the world; in fact, if current trajectories continue, the UK will soon join the United States as the only two developed markets in the world’s top 10 coronavirus cases. There is no shortage of blame to blame for this, delaying the lockdowns in the misplaced hope that the UK would be able to bypass the draconian measures and simply zoom in to collective immunity, continuous “mixed messagingFrom the country’s political leadership on what was expected of the British to control the virus, to the Prime Minister’s senior adviser visibly flouting measures of social distancing his government demanded from its citizens and still kept its job. This last piece cost Johnson a lot of popularity. Not even a third of Britons support their government in the face of the crisis. Based on UK performance to date, you wonder how the approval rating is still so high.
The British economy also suffered a heavy blow, with a 20.4 percent contraction in April (a figure which has just been published in June). Yes, the IMF predicts a global contraction of 4.9% this year, but even then the UK is underperforming – the OECD expects the UK to suffer the most economic damage of any developed market this year with an economic contraction of 11.5%. That said, if there is a positive point for the United Kingdom, it is in its monetary policy response from the Bank of England, which was fast and robust… we shudder to think how much worse the economic situation would have been.
What happens next:
Many political observers feared that Boris would use the chaos and economic chaos caused by the pandemic as a cover to crush the EU, thus appeasing the most intransigent elements of its base which favor above all the independence of Brussels, the blows economic be damned. While this is indeed still a concern, the Johnson government’s mismanagement of the pandemic has actually made this less likely, as 10 Downing Street is now actively concerned about his own shattered credibilitycredibility which has undoubtedly been tarnished in recent months by things both inside and outside of its control.
The potential resurgence of the Labor party under its new leader, Sir Keir Starmer, also takes into account Downing Street calculations. Starmer took control of center-left party after Jeremy Corbyn’s disastrous leadership reign, under which the party defended a confused Brexit message that earned them some of the worst election results of its modern history (without forgetting persistent accusations of anti-semitism). Starmer tried to fix Labor from the inside and didn’t really take advantage of the Brexit issue, perhaps for fear of reminding voters of his prominent position in the Stay campaign. But what he did was absolutely apologize Johnson over the country’s pandemic response during Prime Minister’s Questions, an ordinary session of Parliament where the Prime Minister must answer questions from the opposition in a public setting. Starmer, as Leader of the Opposition and lawyer and prosecutor by profession, systematically Dresses down Johnson every week for government missteps, which would be a lot more fun if it weren’t so tragic. Nevertheless, the performances have allowed him to surpass Johnson recently for the first time as the person that most Britons would like to see as their Prime Minister. Once again, Starmer has avoided embarking on Brexit, but the prospect of a Brexit without agreement should bring him back into the mix, perhaps alongside the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the centrist Lib-Dems, for require another extension. Combined with the growing cries of pro-business groups against an unbridled Brexit during an unprecedented economic contraction, Johnson now has the most incentive at any time during his tenure to seek a deal with the EU While the notes Johnson’s personal took a hit, conservatives still lead in polls, and they would like this to continue, even if many obstacles to negotiating with Brussels still loom.
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In the meantime, Johnson plans to use the next few months to launch major infrastructure projects, which he himself compared FDR’s list of “New Deal” projects. While this may allow it to gain political goodwill on the fringes, it is the government’s response to the pandemic – or lack thereof – that will determine the Johnson government’s political fortunes in the coming months … and with it, the prospects for a trade agreement between the UK and the EU.
The coronavirus file. Everything you need to know about the global spread of COVID-19
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