Politics and Brexit: fear of the B word

This is the final part of the FT Brexit: The Next Phase series

Brexit is the hot topic of the moment, being debated in the media, in the business community and by economists as they try to figure out why the UK economy is struggling relative to its competitors.

But as public support for Brexit wanes, businesses grow more restless and the trade and investment impacts of leaving the EU become clearer, there is a group they hesitate to discuss the B word: Britain’s political elite.

Rishi Sunak, the Brexiteer prime minister, has ended a discussion started by unnamed figures in his government over whether Britain should establish closer Swiss-style ties with the EU over time.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer, the Labor leader who campaigned for a second EU referendum, gave a speech to the CBI in November in which he only mentioned Brexit once in passing.

Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the pro-EU Liberal Democrats, did not mention Brexit at all in his biggest autumn speech, referring only to the need to cut the red tape that strangles trade with Europe. Europe.

At first glance, it seems that the British political classes have not caught up with the public. The truth is Brexit is now probably less popular than it has been since June 2016, according to pollster Sir John Curtice said in november.

YouGov reported in November that 56% of voters thought it was a bad idea to leave the EU and only 32% still thought it was a good idea.

But that doesn’t mean the British public has a huge appetite to reopen the contentious Brexit debate, nor do they think there’s much chance of Britain joining the EU.

A survey by Redfield & Wilton found just 27% thought Britain was likely to apply to join the EU within the next 10 years; only around a third thought the EU would welcome the UK back.

Instead, Starmer and Davey talk about making Boris Johnson’s rocky Brexit trade deal work better without undermining its core principles: no alignment of rules, no free movement, no Court of Justice jurisdiction. European justice and no large transfers of money to Brussels.

For Starmer, the reopening of the Brexit debate is seen by his aides as an impending political disaster, a reminder to Leave voters of how he once tried to overturn their vote with a second referendum.

Asked after his speech at the CBI conference to explain his thinking on Brexit, the Labor leader said: We are not going back to the EU. This means not going back to the single market or the customs union.

He’s thinking about Brexit but he doesn’t want it all to get out of control, so you’re thrown into further speculation as to whether [the UK] going to join the single market or the customs union, said a senior adviser.

The issue is particularly problematic in the seats that Labor must win back from the Conservatives in the next election. The highest concentration of Leave voters coincides with major Red Wall target seats in areas such as the North East of England, Lancashire towns and the Midlands.

Kevan Jones, Labor MP for North Durham, was a Remainer, but said the matter should be well put aside: it’s a done deal. We left the EU. We let people have a choice, you can’t keep revisiting it.

Talk of reversing Brexit is also seen as a doomed election strategy by the Lib Dems; the parties’ former South West heartland seats were among the most pro-Brexit constituencies in the country.

As for Sunak, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are an ever-present threat if he strays from the real Brexit path. Lord David Frost, the former Brexit minister, has claimed pro-Europeans are trying to soften the UK for a potential return to the EU, while Nigel Farage, the former leader of Britain’s independence party, threatens to return to frontline politics if the Conservatives let themselves go on the subject of Europe.

Labor and the Lib Dems, who could find themselves working together in a hung parliament after the next election, talk about improving, not tearing up, the Johnson Brexit deal. Or as Starmer puts it: Make Brexit work.

Labor hopes that with improved relations, including the resolution of the contentious Northern Ireland Protocol issue, they may be able to renegotiate side deals, such as a veterinary deal to reduce border checks on foodstuffs, or an agreement to facilitate the touring of musicians. Europe.

Sunak also believes that if the conflict with Northern Ireland is resolved, he can build on his initially warm personal relationship with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and gradually reduce trade frictions in the country. over time.

Whichever party wins the election due in 2024, relations with the EU can be expected to heat up as Brexit bitterness fades and both sides face challenges such as energy, migration and the strategic threat posed by Russia and China.

But if the UK economy continues to lag behind other EU competitors, will there be a renewed push in the next parliament for a more fundamental overhaul of the relationship, or even reintegration?

Dominic Grieve, a former Conservative attorney general, said Britain’s entry into the EU in 1973 was because the UK was a country in decline with less global reach and influence, deciding that he was better off at the club.

Some politicians say it will take a generation for the question of whether to join the group to come back. I think it will come back faster, said Grieve. This debate has never gone away and will continue.

Sir David Lidington, deputy prime minister in Theresa Mays’ government and a longtime Europe minister, said if Sunak won the next election he could use his own mandate to improve relations with the EU.

If it’s Starmer, I think he would want the reset to go further, he said, adding that Labor may seek closer institutional relations. But he warned that anyone who thinks access to the single market or joining the customs union would be an option for Britain without free movement would be disappointed.

But David Jones, vice-chairman of the conservative pro-Brexit European research group, stressed that reversing Brexit was not so easy. It’s not something that could happen overnight. It would take the best part of a decade, he said.

We would have to have a national conversation, probably another referendum, and then negotiate with the EU, which would probably want us to join the single currency, he added.

I don’t know if either of the two major political parties would have the energy or the inclination to go through this process.