Politics
What Russia could gain from the reignited conflict in Syria Asia Times
Largely overshadowed by the war in Ukraine, Syria remains a deeply divided and violent country, where military conflict has recently resumed.
This new period of conflict in Syria, with Russia, Turkey and Israel all launch attacks, also reflects some of the battle lines of the Ukrainian war and threatens to have ramifications for both battlefields.
After more than a decade of war, there are already significant numbers of Russian, American and Turkish forces on the ground in Syria. Russia backs President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and the US and Turkey back their own rival local allies.
A highly combustible mix of local, regional and global security risks has evolved over the past decade in Syria and has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Global and regional forces were an important factor, while Russia used the war to show the world its military strength.
Today, Russia is potentially the biggest beneficiary of Turkey’s recent military efforts. bet to launch airstrikes on local US allies in Syria. It could help strengthen relations between President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a time when Russia desperately needs influential allies.
When a bomb exploded in a busy pedestrian area of Istanbul on November 13, killing six people and injuring dozens more, Turkey blame the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a predominantly Kurdish militia based in Syria that Ankara links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
The SDF, which denies any link to the Istanbul bombing, is also Washington main ally in Operation Inherent Resolve, a US-led coalition effort against the Islamic State (ISIS).
Next Turkish Airstrikes against SDF targets in Syria and continues threats of a ground invasion is bad news for the war against ISIS and for relations between Washington and Ankara, who are, after all, also NATO allies. Warningsincluding US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, have so far successfully prevented a Turkish ground campaign in Syria.
The combination of Turkish strikes and threats led to a suspension joint US-Kurdish anti-ISIS patrols in Syria, at a time when the latest US assessment of ISIS Remarks a significant increase in its activity in Syria.
Ramifications for Ukrainian allies
ISIS is not the only potential beneficiary of Turkish airstrikes against US allies in Syria. Any division among NATO allies also has wider ramifications for the war in Ukraine. Turkey remains one of only two members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the other being Hungary which has not yet accepted Finland and Sweden to join the alliance.
Turkish opposition their membership is, in part, also linked to Finland’s and Sweden’s alleged support for Kurdish militants. The ability to veto their membership gives Ankara more leeway to pursue its own agenda in Syria and limits the pressure that Washington can exert.
Turkey, together with the UN, has been instrumental helping to negotiate, maintain and extend a vital agreement to facilitate Ukrainian grain exports. President Erdogan also remains one of the few NATO leaders to keep lines of communication open. Communication with Putin, which will be critical if Russia and Ukraine begin negotiating an end to the war.
Turkey is perhaps the closest Russia has to a ally within NATO, and Ankara’s break with its NATO allies will be welcomed in Moscow. While the Kremlin has been caution against Turkish military action in Syria, he also tried to promote a rapprochement between Erdogan and Assad.
Erdogan showed some opening to this idea, although it would be highly unlikely lead to a credible transition from war to peace in Syria. But if such a rapprochement were possible, it would open up the possibility for come back of some of the hundreds of thousands of refugees from Turkey to Syria and could give Erdogan his long-demanded safe haven along the Turkish-Syrian border.
This formed the basis of a 2019 OK with Washington and Moscow which put an end to a precedent military intervention in Syria, after which Russia and the United States were to help clear the Turkish border of Kurdish militants. Turkey recently claimed that they didn’t do that. With Erdogan seeking re-election in 2023, adding more border security and easing the refugee problem would improve his prospects for another term.
What Russia Needs
But for Russia, not only is it essential to support a vital quasi-ally in Ankara, but it also cannot afford a greater commitment in Syria, given the severity of the war in Ukraine. The rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus, and between the Syrian regime and the Kurds, would cement Russia’s role as a key intermediary in Syria and therefore its presence and influence in a strategically important country in the Middle East.
Strengthening the Assad regime would also allow Russia to maintain good relations with Iran, which has recently emerged as a supplier armed drones used by Russia in attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Russia is quite adept at playing such multi-layered games and connecting the dots between seemingly unrelated and geographically distant theaters of operations. The fact that the war in Ukraine has not gone Russia’s way of late makes it more likely that Moscow will try to exploit crises such as the current one in Syria to its advantage. It will only succeed if the West does not pay attention.
This article is republished from The conversation under Creative Commons license. Read it original article.
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